Azerbaijan targets $150 billion economy by 2035 through strategic transformation

Azerbaijan’s economy could double in size over the next decade, reaching up to $150 billion in GDP by 2035, according to a new report by international consulting firm Oliver Wyman.

In its study “Azerbaijan 3.0: The Market Makers of Tomorrow,” the firm describes the country as being at a “critical inflection point,” with the potential to accelerate growth by leveraging its natural resources, strategic geographic position, and cultural assets.

The report emphasizes that achieving this target will require a shift away from a predominantly commodity-based model toward a more diversified economy driven by services and higher value-added production, particularly in downstream petrochemicals.

Among the key pathways identified is the expansion of Azerbaijan’s oil and gas sector into advanced processing industries, including refined petroleum products, polymers, and specialty chemicals. At the same time, the country could position itself as a regional energy trading hub, capturing greater value through financial, logistical, and risk management services.

Tourism is also highlighted as a major growth driver. With targeted investments and policy reforms, Baku has the potential to become a year-round destination and a leading cultural and entertainment hub in the Caspian region. International visitor numbers could increase from 2.6 million in 2024 to between 10 and 12 million annually by 2035, significantly boosting the sector’s contribution to GDP.

The report further underscores the importance of transitioning to a knowledge-based economy. By developing logistics, trade finance, and digital supply chain services, Azerbaijan could move beyond transit functions to capture higher-value segments of global trade.

According to the authors, the transformation is achievable through a coordinated strategy focused on four core areas: downstream petrochemicals, energy trading services, logistics orchestration, and experience-based tourism.

If successfully implemented, these reforms could not only accelerate economic growth but also help Azerbaijan move into the ranks of upper-middle-income economies, alongside countries such as Czechia, Portugal, and Hungary.