In Azerbaijan, even cultural news comes tinged with the echoes of war. The renowned Russian Tchaikovsky Symphony Orchestra performed at the State Philharmonic Hall in Baku — a gesture of gratitude for assistance in evacuating them from Iran. It was a heartfelt “thank you,” expressed in the universal language of great musicianship. Observers point out that every such evacuation through Azerbaijan’s still-closed land borders requires significant diplomatic coordination.
And perhaps now, amid dramatic headlines from the Middle East, Ukraine, and Russia, it’s worth re-evaluating the fact that Azerbaijan’s land borders have remained closed since 2020 — the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. While air traffic has resumed, land borders are still officially shut.
Today, a single glance at the map — or a quick scan of the news — is enough to appreciate the complexity and sensitivity of Azerbaijan’s geopolitical position.
The world watches with unease as Israel and Iran exchange missile strikes. Tehran residents are fleeing the capital in panic — Israel has warned civilians to stay away from military targets, but due to Iran’s culture of secrecy, such facilities are often unmarked. The city lacks adequate bomb shelters. The war in the Middle East has, for a time, eclipsed even the Ukrainian conflict — until the recent Russian missile attack on residential districts in Kyiv, which left dozens dead and injured.
Now for some Azerbaijani specifics. Azerbaijan finds itself geographically squeezed between Russia and Iran — both deeply embroiled in large-scale conflicts. In the autumn of 2022, neighboring countries saw a massive wave of migration from Russia following the announcement of “partial mobilization,” when border crossings were flooded with those later dubbed “relocants.” Migration flows from Russia have since slowed, but the situation could change at any moment. Russian authorities could tighten conscription policies again. Ukraine continues drone attacks on Russian military targets, conducting operations like “Spider Web,” which could at any time provoke a new exodus from Russia.
And that’s just part of the picture. The greater migration risk now comes from Iran.
Long before the current conflict, many analysts warned of a potential mass migration wave from Iran. The late Vladimir Zhirinovsky — as Minval previously reported — once warned six years ago:
“Our real problem? Millions of refugees will come. And where will they go? Only northward. They cannot head south — that’s Sunni Muslim territory, and they would be slaughtered there. So they’ll go north — to Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. These countries will be overwhelmed. And then, refugees not just from Iran, but also from Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, will head for Russia’s North Caucasus. That would create an explosive situation. They’ll find allies, enemies, and chaos — all the way to Astrakhan, Volgograd, and Rostov. That’s where we’ll have to stop them.”
He never explained exactly how. But similar arguments were used by Russia to justify maintaining border guards on the former Soviet frontiers — claiming that without them, Russia would face a flood of migrants, terrorists, etc.
Zhirinovsky was an incendiary politician, but the risks associated with uncontrolled migration are real. The arrival of just one million refugees in a 500-million-strong European Union sparked a crisis that dominated EU summits for years.
Now consider this: Iran has a population of 90 million; Azerbaijan — only 10 million. The migration pressure that could be exerted on Azerbaijan is vastly greater. And among the displaced, of course, not everyone will be a civilian or a victim — the Syrian refugee experience in Turkey offers a cautionary precedent.
It is in this context that the words of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, delivered at the opening session of the current Milli Majlis on September 23, 2024, ring especially prescient:
“Our land borders remain closed — for civilian travel. We understand that this causes some inconvenience, but the current geopolitical situation is clear to everyone. From a domestic security standpoint, this is the only right course of action. All necessary measures are being taken to ensure internal security. There are both real and potential threats. The relevant structures are actively working to neutralize them. The public is informed about these matters to the appropriate extent. But as this is a highly sensitive issue, I believe Azerbaijani citizens understand that it would be inappropriate and even harmful to speak about it in detail. What I can say with absolute confidence is this: the fact that our land borders have remained closed in recent years has spared us from very serious disasters. Even today, with the borders still closed, dangerous attempts are being made — and they are being stopped. Therefore, protecting our borders shields us from external risks.”
Less than a year has passed since those remarks — and the risks have only grown. Azerbaijan’s closed land borders remain a vital safeguard against both real and potential threats.
Nurani
Translated from minval.az
