The new head of French diplomacy made every effort to soothe the Armenian audience, delivering precisely the promises they wanted to hear in Yerevan. While he didn’t explicitly mention reoccupation, Séjourné promised that France would continue its cooperation with Armenia in the field of defense and security. He also expressed that, in his view, “Armenia must have the ability to protect its territorial integrity, sovereignty, and population.”
First, it is important to remind that no one is challenging Armenia’s “territorial integrity, sovereignty, or population.” Azerbaijan has reiterated this many times at the highest levels. Furthermore, in the immediate aftermath of Armenia’s defeat in the 44-day war, Azerbaijan had nothing preventing it from marching victoriously all the way to Yerevan. And, most crucially, the French Foreign Minister ought to know exactly what type of weapons his country is supplying to Armenia—howitzers, which are inherently offensive weapons. Moreover, these are supplied to a country that still has not removed its constitutional claims on Karabakh nor abandoned its agenda for the reoccupation of Azerbaijani territories—areas where former displaced persons are already returning. Additionally, the CAESAR howitzers that France is supplying, while not the most modern version, are not considered precision weapons. This means that Armenia could very well use these howitzers to target civilian populations, just as it did during the so-called “ceasefire,” when Armenian forces repeatedly fired upon villages, schools, and even funeral processions. This occurred again during the 44-day war, when SCUD and Smerch missiles were launched at peaceful quarters of Azerbaijani cities.
It is clear that the amount of weapons France is supplying will not enable Armenia to carry out its reoccupation plans. However, they could easily provoke an escalation. Furthermore, such gifts of weaponry, coupled with Séjourné’s statements, will likely be interpreted by Yerevan—and probably will be—as political support for its revenge plans, with all the ensuing consequences. So, while Mr. Séjourné may claim that “the defensive cooperation between the two countries is not aimed at escalating tensions in the region—no one has such intentions,” whom is he trying to deceive with this duplicity?
This is not the only “deceptive maneuver” by the French minister. During his visit, Séjourné also vowed to protect Armenia from “Russian pressure,” reassuring Yerevan, “You can always count on our assistance in defending democratic values.” He added, “France is always by your side.” What remains unsaid, however, is what exactly France will do if, for example, Russia—which controls Armenian railroads—decides to raise transportation tariffs or increase oil and gas prices to global levels for Armenia. Or what will happen if Russia simply decides to stop maintaining Armenia’s unprofitable infrastructure altogether? President Macron’s attempts during the Ukraine war to “save face for the Kremlin” through territorial concessions at Ukraine’s expense leave little doubt here.
Yet another facet of Séjourné’s visit emerged during the joint press conference with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. Mirzoyan assured that he had discussed regional stability with his French colleague and reaffirmed Armenia’s commitment to the peace agenda. Moreover, Mirzoyan emphasized that Armenia is ready to sign a peace treaty “as soon as possible.” “As you know, we have submitted the latest drafts, which contain a fully agreed text,” said Mirzoyan, thanking Paris for its assistance in establishing peace in the region. “We are ready to sign the agreed text as soon as possible—a treaty in which the countries mutually recognize each other’s territorial integrity, the Alma-Ata Declaration, and the borders that existed at the time of the collapse of the USSR.” The only thing missing was a “swear on my mother’s life” to complete the performance. But even then, anyone familiar with the regional developments would know: Mirzoyan is lying.
Azerbaijan proposed working on a peace treaty immediately after the 44-day war, outlining five key principles. Instead of working on this treaty, Armenia preferred to “stall” and devise revenge plans. This strategy failed. Even after the counter-terrorist operations of September 2023, Armenia continued to “talk around the issue” rather than engage in substantive work. Yerevan took a staggering 70 days to “think over” Azerbaijan’s latest proposals.
Now, suddenly, Armenia has switched to full throttle, trying to speed up the signing of a peace treaty. What happened? Why did Armenia drag its feet before and now suddenly try to persuade Azerbaijan to “sign as soon as possible”?
In fact, this is another act of deception. Armenia is offering Azerbaijan a deliberately “incomplete” draft, from which, as the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated after receiving Yerevan’s latest “proposals,” Armenia has simply removed key provisions it does not like. This alone turns the peace treaty into little more than a collection of toasts and good wishes. Moreover, let us remind everyone once again: Armenia has yet to remove its constitutional claims on Karabakh. Azerbaijan has repeatedly emphasized at the highest levels that there will be no peace treaty until these claims are removed from Armenia’s constitution. It is obvious: as long as Armenia’s constitution contains claims on Karabakh, any peace treaty would merely be a piece of paper, which tomorrow could be interpreted as Azerbaijan agreeing to give Karabakh to Armenia.
Now, Armenia is desperately trying to persuade Azerbaijan to sign the treaty in such a “watered-down” version, which would render it at best meaningless, and at worst provide a loophole for Armenia’s revenge plans. As Ararat Mirzoyan inadvertently revealed during the press conference, France has also become involved in this political deception.
Well, it is time to remind everyone once again of the “red lines.” Firstly, Azerbaijan will not back down from its principled positions. The peace treaty will either be signed in a form acceptable to Azerbaijan, or it will not be signed at all. Secondly, Armenia must seriously consider its future and stop engaging in revenge plans and political manipulation. Thirdly, France’s “embrace” of Yerevan’s revanchists has severely undermined its credibility, making it unlikely that France will be involved in the peace treaty process, except perhaps as political advisors to Yerevan. There will be no French mediation—this became clear after the failed meeting in Granada.
So, despite attempts to put on a cheap show on the Yerevan stage, Séjourné may have managed to impress Yerevan’s local audience or ethnic Armenians with French passports, but certainly not Azerbaijan. We are all too aware of the game that Paris and Yerevan are playing. And we know that they lost this game before it even began.
Nurani
