From May 25 to 26, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha will visit Azerbaijan — his first trip in this position and the first visit by a Ukrainian foreign minister in the last three years. Under such circumstances, the two sides will undoubtedly have much to discuss, especially considering the close and historically strong ties between the two nations.
Azerbaijan has consistently and unequivocally supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and, from the very first days of the full-scale invasion, provided comprehensive humanitarian assistance to the Ukrainian people. In 2022, when Russia’s military-political leadership approved General Surovikin’s plan of energy terror, it was Azerbaijan that first began supplying electrical equipment to Ukraine.
Given the current geopolitical landscape, it is clear that Andriy Sybiha’s visit is not limited to humanitarian discussions or topics typically avoided in public media discourse. Talks will also cover energy cooperation and the rapidly shifting global order in the wake of Donald Trump’s return to power.
In the first 100 days of Trump’s new presidency, we have already witnessed the chaos unleashed by the forces he has set free — particularly in Kashmir, where India, emboldened, attempted an operation against Pakistan that ended in complete failure. This kind of emboldened behavior, driven by a thirst for historical revenge, is likely to spread to other states, especially as U.S. global influence continues to wane.
The visit also takes place against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s failed peacekeeping efforts and a fruitless summit in Istanbul, as well as ongoing phone talks among the leaders of the U.S., Ukraine, Russia, and EU member states.
At the same time, we are seeing an ineffective U.S. policy in the Middle East, which has led to cooling relations with its historically close partner, Israel. This vacuum has allowed Turkey to increase its already considerable regional influence — an example of the old adage: “nature abhors a vacuum.”
In such a dynamic environment, Ukraine seeks not only broad-based support from Azerbaijan — a regional leader in the South Caucasus — but also alignment of strategic actions, taking into account various regional sensitivities. This includes shared concerns about neighboring Russia and Iran, both hostile toward Ukraine, as well as the broader context of shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Naturally, the topic of energy resources — including oil, oil products, and gas — will be a key part of the agenda. With Azerbaijan ramping up exports to Europe and emerging as a serious competitor in the market, the stakes are high. Ukraine has long maintained a strategic partnership with SOCAR and beyond. Even before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine had shown interest in diversifying its energy supplies, though transit routes remained a key obstacle. Now, those routes are more viable. Isn’t it time to settle the matter?
These upcoming negotiations will likely be viewed unfavorably by Russia, which has recently intensified its criticism of Baku’s actions. Thus, we can expect not so much sharp attacks, but rather blunt, poorly veiled jabs from Smolenskaya Square. Hardly surprising.
Russia has long been irritated by Azerbaijan’s rising regional influence and its cautious yet increasingly independent domestic and foreign policy. This growing frustration dates back to 2020, following the end of the 44-day war, when Azerbaijan began asserting itself with confidence and authority — something Moscow can no longer suppress.
This frustration has led Russia to expand its intelligence networks in Azerbaijan and grant open license to anti-Islamic and anti-Turkish actors working in the region. Yet even here, the Kremlin’s efforts have met resistance — destructive elements are being swiftly neutralized within Azerbaijan.
Andriy Sybiha’s visit will likely be accompanied by this familiar background noise. The fact that this annoys a country used to dominating others and dictating terms is telling. It also means that the visit holds long-term significance for both nations. Due to confidentiality, much of what is discussed may never reach the public domain, but one thing is clear: Azerbaijan and Ukraine share many strategic interests — and that is precisely what infuriates their enemies.
In this rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, it is crucial that both countries coordinate their positions now — while the traditional balance of power continues to shift and weaken.
By Oleksandr Kovalenko (Kyiv)
Translated from minval.az
