On the one hand, Total has been successfully operating in Azerbaijan for a long time. This company was among the first to join the “Contract of the Century”. Largely because of Total’s oil interests, France became the second country to open an embassy in Azerbaijan, right after Türkiye, beating to it both the United States, Russia and even Iran, which had a consulate in Baku but lacked the political will to turn it into an embassy. Total owns a 5% stake in the BTC pipeline. Finally, this year gas production will be launched at the Absheron field, where Total holds a 50% stake. Back in May and June, Total representatives, including Nicolas Terraz, the company’s President of Exploration and Production, discussed in Baku the expansion of their projects.
But today Patrick Pouyanné’s visit comes just as Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo and her Strasbourg counterpart Jeanne Barseghian are staging a provocative show in Armenia with “humanitarian aid for Artsakh”, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna is making statements that cause nothing but outrage in Baku, and French President Emmanuel Macron is promising to “increase pressure on Baku”. The message for Total is clear: the company needs to salvage its business in Azerbaijan. Yes, Baku is not burning bridges, severing diplomatic relations with Paris or shutting down commerce yet, but how long will this “yet” last? Especially if Paris continues its pro-Armenian diplomacy?
Moreover, French business community cannot ignore the fact that their country’s position on the African continent is deteriorating rapidly, with politicians losing influence and businesses losing money, which is much more painful. France has no oil of its own, but the foreign projects of French oil companies are so important for the economy that in 2008, against the backdrop of plummeting oil prices, Paris declared an “economic state of emergency”. One might say, oh well, Total operates not only in Azerbaijan, and against the background of everything else, it will survive the loss of the “Caspian” projects, but when this “everything else” collapses at the speed of a dam break, squandering markets and investment opportunities is not the best tactic.
In this context, the meeting of the President of Azerbaijan with the Total CEO gives solid food for thought. Experts were saying as far back as following the signing of the “Contract of the Century” that it would be the oil companies operating in Azerbaijan that would lobby the interests of our country. At that time, the focus was on the US policy and Amendment 907. Now it is Total’s turn. Total cannot fail to realize that it will have to salvage its projects in Azerbaijan and relations between Baku and Paris at the same time.
