Nevertheless, the most important thing in all this is the expectation that a peace treaty will be signed.
“We must understand that we are talking about a framework agreement. This means that some short text will be drafted that will take into account the key principles of the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” former Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov commented on the situation for Minval.az.
He also added that Antony Blinken’s comments after the meeting suggested that a roadmap might be adopted to outline further actions in the progress of the negotiation process.
Zulfugarov believes that some settlement issues will take quite a long time, such as border delimitation and demarcation.
“This process could take years. The normalization of communications between the countries is an issue that takes longer than one month to resolve. Azerbaijan will probably raise the issue of reparations, which is also on the agenda for the next few years. Besides, reparations can be demanded by both the Azerbaijani state and individual citizens affected by the Armenian aggression. The issue that provokes the most discussion is that the Armenian side insists on mentioning the Armenians of ‘Nagorno-Karabakh’ in the treaty. They suggest that the negotiations on the status of ‘Nagorno-Karabakh’ should be held with international involvement,” he added.
The former minister went on to say that Antony Blinken had made a very important statement when he had said that national minority issues would be the next step.
“I think this is a positive statement, because Azerbaijan also has questions. If Armenia insists on discussing the conditions of residence for national minorities, Azerbaijan will raise the issue of Western Azerbaijanis living in the territory of Armenia. That is, these issues will be addressed with a mirror approach. These are the first conclusions we can make so far. Obviously, the Americans see the situation as close to reaching an agreement on the text and the parties are expected to initial some text,” he stressed.
According to the analyst, the signing of the peace treaty by the heads of states will happen after some time.
“These are my first thoughts on this negotiation process. Although, it is worth mentioning that there is talk in the Armenian expert community about some institute of international guarantors, which is a blatant attempt to resume the activities of the OSCE MG, or countries under the auspices of the UN will be the guarantors. Obviously, this idea will be voiced by Armenia during the talks,” he said.
Commenting on the subject of negotiations, Zulfugarov added that Armenia evades questions on the main issue of the negotiations even in Washington.
“I mean those fundamental principles of the post-conflict peace settlement. They will probably bring up the Lachin issue and so on there. This is a departure, in a way, from the substantive issues of the settlement. So they will probably try to drag out this situation through Russia,” he said.
With regard to American mediation, Zulfugarov said that any mediation is always subjective.
“Brussels, Moscow, Washington are pursuing their own goals. At least one of those goals is obvious: an attempt to squeeze Russia out of the region. If this happens, then not only the question of the presence of the Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, but also the question of the deployment of an American military base in Armenia will come up. Moscow is now in a difficult situation. It cannot escalate, it does not have enough capacity,” Zulfugarov summed up.
Nijat Hajiyev
Translated from Minval.az
