The recent developments in the Middle East — and Azerbaijan’s involvement in at least two cases (Syria and the Peace Summit on Gaza in Egypt) — have once again raised the question of what form Azerbaijan’s participation in the region’s complex dynamics might take.
There are numerous fault lines and conflicts across the region — we won’t list them all. Some countries are at war, others are engaged in ideological confrontation, while elsewhere situational alliances are being formed. Certain states have lost sovereignty and are being reshaped by neighboring powers or internal factions. External players are abundant — practically all major geopolitical centers of power are involved.
Azerbaijan’s main interest lies in preventing a confrontation between Turkey (its ally) and Israel (its strategic partner).
There are different kinds of confrontations: diplomatic and military. Diplomatic contradictions can be eased, and a platform for dialogue can be created — as Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev mentioned earlier this year.
A military confrontation, however, would be the most dangerous scenario. After the events in Syria, the possibility of direct contact between Turkish and Israeli forces has become a reality. Looking ahead, the proposed peace plan for Gaza envisions a mixed peacekeeping mission — composed of troops from various countries — to operate “on the ground.” Discussions are now underway as to which nations will deploy forces between the Palestinians and Israel.
Several international media outlets have suggested that, alongside Indonesia and Bangladesh, contingents from Türkiye and Azerbaijan might also appear in Gaza.
It is clear that Israel opposes the presence of Turkish troops in Gaza, even under a peacekeeping mandate. Gaza could become the second location — after Syria — where Turkish and Israeli soldiers come into physical proximity. This brings significant risk, given the personal hostility between the two countries’ leaders and the still-unsettled situation in Syria.
A most complex question for Azerbaijan.
Trump’s peace plan is still being discussed, particularly concerning the future governance of Gaza — initially by a mixed contingent and later through the creation of local police forces. The issue of disarming Hamas also remains on the table.
For Azerbaijan to make any decision, it would require guarantees from the United States and other parties, as well as clarity regarding Gaza’s governance plan and the precise mandate of the peacekeeping contingent.
Of course, it would be more convenient for Baku to stay on the sidelines. However, any potential clash between Türkiye and Israel would negatively affect Azerbaijan’s own strategic position. In this context, Azerbaijan’s stance fully aligns with that of the United States — making it crucial to maintain close coordination with Washington. One is reminded of Admiral Cooper’s recent visit to Baku…
The situation is difficult — and the current historical period even more so. There are no comprehensive rules or norms; everything is being built through ad hoc negotiations among stakeholders and partners.
For now, there is no clear answer to the question — as negotiations continue and the framework for agreements and crisis management mechanisms remains undefined. All that can be done is to wait and observe.
By Farhad Mammadov, originally published on his Telegram channel @mneniyefm
