Official Yerevan is making yet another attempt to mend ties with Moscow. As the Speaker of Armenia’s Parliament, Alen Simonyan, announced, Nikol Pashinyan will visit Russia in the coming days, with a meeting planned between him and Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the most intriguing part was Simonyan’s remark that Armenia does not consider the withdrawal of the Russian military base from its territory.
This statement deserves the closest attention—especially given the concerns in the region about the Russian base.
Here it is worth recalling Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s interview with Al Arabiya TV. Among other things, the head of state commented on the current crisis in Azerbaijan-Russia relations. When asked by the journalist: “After all this, I mean Russia’s position—don’t you fear that Russia could take steps in the region that might stop what Azerbaijan is trying to achieve? I mean geographically, regarding the corridor, etc.?” — President Aliyev replied: “They have a military base in Armenia with several thousand servicemen. At the same time, Armenia’s borders with Iran and Turkey are guarded by Russian border troops. There is not a single Russian soldier on Azerbaijani soil. I don’t know what may happen in Armenia. But I don’t want to think about such a negative scenario.”
The Russian base in Gyumri, Armenia, is a legacy from the times of the Russian Empire and the USSR, when Moscow was planning a breakthrough to the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, dreaming of “returning the cross to Hagia Sophia in Constantinople.” Back then, when the entire South Caucasus was under Russian control, the base had major strategic value. But now, with the former “Transcaucasian republics” independent and Russian troops withdrawn from Azerbaijan and Georgia (except for occupied regions), the Gyumri base has lost its former importance—even aside from the question of whether Russia today is prepared to fight Turkey and its allies.
During Armenia’s aggression against Azerbaijan and the occupation of Azerbaijani territories, given the close ties between Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia had to keep some of its forces on the Turkish border. But the Gyumri base covered that front, freeing up Armenian resources for the war against Azerbaijan.
The main issue, however, is what happened after the Karabakh conflict was resolved. Reports emerged that Russia was redeploying troops and weapons to the base—even amid a shortage of military resources due to the war in Ukraine! Against whom? Does Moscow intend to provoke a new flare-up with Azerbaijan? Or is this a calculation for the longer term, with the troops and arms meant for internal use in Armenia itself, where Moscow makes no secret of its hostility toward Pashinyan? These suspicions only grow stronger in light of recent remarks by Sergey Lavrov, as Minval Politika has reported: Russian diplomacy has hinted quite openly that the agreements reached in Washington still need to be implemented. The hint was unmistakable, especially given Moscow’s evident displeasure. And the Gyumri base is an important lever for Russia—including as a tool to destabilize Armenia’s domestic politics.
That is why the conclusion is clear: the conflict is over, the page has turned, but the Gyumri base remains a “ticking time bomb.” And today, it threatens the entire region—above all, Armenia itself.
