The advancing group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is under Turkey’s control and conducts military operations against the forces of the Assad regime and pro-Iranian proxies. On the other hand, clashes with PKK terrorists have begun. Russian aviation is conducting bombings of pro-Turkish forces to weaken the pace of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s advance.
Thus, it turns out that the agreements between Turkey, Russia, and Iran are collapsing. Negotiations between Iran and Turkey, Iran and Russia, Russia and Turkey indicate that the status quo has been destroyed, and attempts are being made to create a new status quo.
As the practice of war shows, no one stops at what has been achieved, and the status quo is established only when everyone’s resources are depleted. As of today, we do not see the resources of the advancing forces depleting or them encountering fierce resistance. That is, they will keep advancing until they realize that further progress is impossible.
The Threat of Direct Confrontation Among Astana Format Participants
In Syria, Turkey’s and Iran’s proxies are fighting. After the weakening of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iran is sending Shia police units from Iraq to Syria to at least somehow resist the offensive. But these are still proxies… The Iranian Foreign Minister has already stated that IRGC units might participate if requested by the Assad regime.
Only Russia is directly involved in the war in Syria. Turkish troops are controlling the northern border strip and have not yet been involved in armed confrontation.
It is important that Iran, Turkey, and Russia do not clash in direct military confrontation… This is also the purpose of negotiations.
And What About the South Caucasus?
The fact is that Russia, Iran, and Turkey are neighbors of the region, and after the Astana Format on Syria, they supported the 3+3 format for the South Caucasus. At the same time, expert circles in these countries emphasized that after Syria, regional cooperation frameworks among Turkey, Russia, and Iran have been cemented.
Countries in the region view the 3+3 format differently:
Azerbaijan supports this format to reduce geopolitical tensions in and around the region, to participate in a multilateral format with regional neighbors, and to moderate their relations within the region.
Armenia participates in the 3+3 format only because of Iran; Yerevan cannot refuse Tehran. On the other hand, the format allows for interaction with Turkey.
Georgia does not participate in the 3+3 format because of Russia, but at the same time, it has pragmatic relations with all other participants.
In terms of the level and quality of consolidation, the neighboring states surpassed the countries of the region, and this superiority was due to the Astana Format on Syria.
And what about now, when the agreements are falling apart and there is a threat of direct confrontation?
Syria has been reduced to a façade; there is no state, and Assad himself has long turned into a proxy. The only difference is that, unlike other proxies, he wears expensive suits and ties.
In the South Caucasus, the region’s neighbors do not have proxies, and this is a blessing!
Two regional neighbors have allies: Russia has Armenia, and Turkey has Azerbaijan. However, Armenia demonstrates subjectivity in its relations with Russia, while the Azerbaijan-Turkey alliance is equal and without patronage.
Thus, we conclude that the subjectivity of the region’s countries is a defining element that creates obstacles to the spread of competition, conflicts, and confrontations among more powerful states.
The regional configuration of the South Caucasus cannot and should not depend on the relationships of other countries, whether they are neighbors or extra-regional actors with geopolitical interests in the region. In this context, the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia acquires existential significance.
Farhad Mammadov
