“In the context of the ongoing complex military-political situation surrounding Central Asia, there arises a necessity for cooperation in the sphere of defense policy and security. The creation of a regional security architecture is becoming particularly relevant, including through the development of a catalog of security risks for Central Asia and measures to prevent them,” Tokayev stated in an article recently published in the newspaper Kazakhstan Pravda.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is an exceptionally experienced diplomat, far surpassing his colleagues in the current Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He is highly skilled at sending signals that are clear to those who understand, while leaving little room for criticism by others. It is no coincidence that his programmatic article is titled “The Renaissance of Central Asia: On the Path to Sustainable Development and Prosperity.” On one hand, this suggests that the region stands on the verge of a renaissance, in other words, a revival of its geopolitical significance amid the ongoing changes in the global order.
On the other hand, the article presents the vision of Kazakhstan’s ruling political elites on the measures necessary to ensure that this process takes on a sustainable character and leads to the prosperity not only of Kazakhstan but of the entire region. In the article, Tokayev emphasizes the need for Central Asian states to unite in the area of defense policy.
Moreover, the Kazakh President speaks of the “perimeter” of Central Asia, referring to its northern side and the catalog of threats originating from that direction, to which the region must prepare just as it does for threats from other sides.
This is quite logical, given that one of the key questions quietly discussed by Central Asian elites today is: what will happen, figuratively speaking, “at six o’clock in the evening after the war,” when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict eventually concludes? What will the Kremlin do next, and where will it direct its focus?
This is far from a trivial question. All developments suggest that the Kremlin elites have little interest in peaceful development or in restoring Russia’s economy. In other words, under the current regime, Russia is unlikely to shift to a peaceful path. The state machinery of aggression has been set in motion, the military-industrial complex (MIC) will not want to give up the enormous profits it has recently enjoyed, and the current participants in the war and other small beneficiaries will not want to return to meager salaries.
Thus, the conclusion is simple: to maintain all of this, it is vital to find new “Nazis” in the post-Soviet space and “liberate” some “brotherly people” suffering under their oppression—people who were once part of the USSR.
Given the number of recent threats made by “professional patriots” on Russian television against Astana, and considering Moscow’s disdainful attitude towards its Central Asian partners, as well as the grievances it has accumulated against them for their “disrespectful behavior,” Kazakhstan and other states in the region have legitimate concerns.
Of course, Tokayev’s article does not mean that the construction of a new regional security architecture without Russia’s participation will start immediately. However, the Kazakh President has taken the bold step of voicing what other Central Asian elites are still discussing in whispers, thereby initiating a broad discussion on this topic. How it unfolds remains to be seen…
Zuhra Novruzova
Translated from haqqin.az
