In the last few years, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has increasingly espoused moving Armenia away from Russia and towards the European Union (EU.) And yet, since 2022, Armenia has increased its economic and trade dependency on Russia.
The first step, European integration, is contradicted by the second step, growing reliance on Russia. For a multi-vector foreign policy, it seems curiously mono-dimensional.
Armenia’s contradictory foreign policy is abetted by Russia on the one hand and the US and EU on the other. Russia’s strategic interest has always been to increase the integration of former Soviet republics as much as possible towards strengthening its sphere of influence in Eurasia.
The US and EU treat Armenia differently than Belarus. The two turn a blind eye to Armenia’s massive involvement in the re-export of Western goods to Russia, which Yerevan continues to obfuscate through diplomatic discourse. (Armenia-Russia trade tripled in 2022 and doubled again in the first eight months of 2023 as it became a very large backdoor for sanctioned Western goods.) Meanwhile, the West punishes Belarus for openly assisting Russia in evading sanctions.
It is true that Armenia is a democracy and Belarus a dictatorship, but this alone cannot explain why the US and EU turn a blind eye to Armenia and not to Belarus. Both countries are, after all, founding members of the Kremlin-led CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) and EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union).
Pashinyan has suspended Armenia’s participation in the CSTO, but he has not mentioned Armenia reviewing its relationship with the EAEU. This would be near-impossible, as Armenia is completely reliant on Russia for its energy needs while its economic dependency has grown since 2022.
Armenia is the only close Russian ally that has signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU. The agreement provides limited access with lower barriers to the EU customs zone. But countries cannot be in two customs zones, and as long as Armenia remains in the EAEU, it cannot upgrade to an Association Agreement with the EU. Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, which do have Association Agreements, never joined the EAEU.
Armenian officials counter accusations of involvement in the re-export of Western goods to Russia in three ways.
The first is to flatly deny this is taking place. Armenian Economy Minister Vahan Kerobyan said that talk of circumventing sanctions was nothing more than talk. He added: “But, of course, we should follow the developments with all attention, help, and private sector to conduct its activities in such a way so as not to spoil our relations with any of our partners.”
The second is to claim Armenia is controlling and preventing the re-export of sanctioned goods.
In May 2023, over a year after Western sanctions were imposed on Russia, the Armenian government adopted Decree 808-N, approving a list of 38 sanctioned, national security-sensitive goods. This was explicitly undertaken to try to prevent the US and EU from imposing measures on Armenia.
This argument is also made by China, whose trade with Russia has also massively increased since 2022. Meanwhile, there’s evidence that China, too, is using Armenia as a backdoor for sanctioned goods to Russia. Armenia and China ignore the fact that many goods that are not sanctioned are considered dual use; they can be consumer items but, in reality, can and are used by the Russian military-industrial complex.
The third is to draw on long-established pro-Russian ties. Pashinyan said that despite Armenia’s strategic relations with Russia and membership in the EAEU, Armenia “cannot afford to be placed under Western sanctions” and that “therefore, in our relations with Russia, we will act on a scale that allows us to avoid [these].”
Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturian praised Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to Western sanctions and predicted the Russian economy would survive their impact. Khachaturian said the Armenian-Russian historical friendship was decided “not by me; it’s our ancestors who had decided 200 years ago or earlier that we must live together and make joint efforts to develop.”
The US and EU turn a blind eye to Armenia’s involvement in the re-export of Western goods to Russia because it is a small economy that could not survive if it joined Western sanctions.
Another reason is that Armenia is allegedly re-orientating itself to the West, although, as stated earlier, this is contradicted by growing economic ties with Russia.
At a joint press conference with Putin last year, Pashinyan said there was a need to look at “new opportunities” in the face of “emerging challenges” brought about by Western sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Pashinyan thanked Putin and the Russian government with whom Armenia “manage to deal with these threats together.”
In enabling Russia’s military machine, Pashinyan (like China) is making it more likely that Russia could win its war against Ukraine. If Armenia, China, Turkey, the UAE, and Central Asia no longer re-exported Western goods to Russia, its military machine would soon collapse.
Pashinyan apparently does not understand that an emboldened and militarily stronger Russia will never loosen its grip on Armenia. A weakened and militarily defeated Russia would be unable to prevent Armenia from leaving the CSTO and EAEU and integrating into Europe.
Meanwhile, in ignoring Yerevan’s involvement in the evasion of Western sanctions against Russia, the US, and EU are tying Armenia ever more closely to Russia and thereby preventing their goal of the country’s re-orientation from Eurasia to Europe.
Taras Kuzio is a professor of political science at the National University Kyiv-Mohyla Academy of Kyiv, Ukraine.
