While there is as yet no indication that large numbers of Iranians have fled their country as a result of the Israeli-American attacks, the possibility that many will if the war continues for any length of time is worrying countries near Iranian borders, including in particular Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.
The countries of the region lack the resources to prevent large numbers of refugees from flooding into their countries, specialists in them say; and that problem is complicated by the possibility that many of those who might come from Iran are co-ethnics of these three countries or the kind of humanitarian cases these regimes have helped with in the past.
For discussions of these issues in the South Caucasus and Turkmenistan as well, see ritmeurasia.ru/news–2026-03-13–kakie-strany-postradajut-ot-pritoka-iranskih-bezhencev-esli-nachnetsja-ih-ishod-86422, am.sputniknews.ru/20260305/gumanitarnyy-krizis-v-irane-chrevat-sereznymi-posledstviyami-dlya-armenii-i-gruzii—abovyan-99494462.html and akcent.site/eksklyuziv/44273.
The situation at least potentially could be most serious for Armenia not because there are so many ethnic Armenians in Iran but because many other Iranians may see it as the safest route out as it has been for the extraction of members of other countries who found themselves in Iran at the start of this war.
But it could also dramatically affect Azerbaijan because there are currently more ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran than there are in the Republic of Azerbaijan, two groups that speak similar languages but use different alphabets and are culturally distinctive. A flood of Iranian Azerbaijanis into the republic could thus seriously destabilize the situation.
