This is reported by the Bulgarian newspaper Fakti, citing energy experts.
“The European market is primarily interested in these volumes. The transit continues almost unchanged, which means that it is diplomatically and commercially very much in demand by Europe. The Russian side cannot force Ukraine to continue the transit. Only Europeans can do that. They are the ones who are interested and will make the main efforts to continue the transit,” the experts consulted by the publication note.
The countries most dependent on Russian gas include Austria, Slovakia, Italy, and the Czech Republic.
It should be noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Kyiv will not extend the agreement with Gazprom on the transit of Russian gas, which expires at the end of this year. However, he mentioned that after the contract expires, Ukraine, together with the EU, will address the issue of Russian gas transit through its territory to Europe.
Analysts emphasize that a reduction or complete cessation of Russian gas supplies is the most likely scenario. At the same time, they suggest that a European intermediary, currently played by Ukraine’s Naftogaz, could purchase transport capacities through Ukraine, sell them to Gazprom, take the gas from them, and then return it to the Russian company at Ukraine’s western border.
Experts are skeptical about the possibility of Azerbaijani gas being pumped through Ukraine to the EU after the transit agreement with Gazprom ends. If Azerbaijan merely becomes an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine, meaning that Russian gas at the border with Ukraine legally becomes Azerbaijani, this option is essentially no different from regular transit and is unlikely.
At the same time, if Gazprom could export gas to Azerbaijan for domestic consumption, and Azerbaijan increased its exports to the EU (but not through Ukraine), this scheme could become part of the Turkish hub with a potential supply of only 3-4 billion cubic meters per year.
Despite the growing capacity of the LNG market and the near-record filling of underground gas storage facilities in Europe, gas prices in the EU could soar above $500 per 1,000 cubic meters in the event of a cold winter and a complete halt to supplies through Ukraine. If the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is stopped or reduced, Europe will not avoid price increases.
It should be recalled that the European Union proposed the transit of Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine, and negotiations on this proposal are currently underway. Since Azerbaijan currently does not have a large volume of additional gas for export to Europe, the transit could be carried out with Russia’s participation. One option under consideration is the purchase of Russian gas at the Ukrainian border by SOCAR and its transportation to Europe.
Another option is the implementation of a gas swap between Azerbaijan and Russia, whereby gas received from Russia would be transported to Europe through Turkey in the same volume. There are other options, but experts currently doubt the possibility of reaching an agreement on any of them.
Elyas Shafiyev
Translated from haqqin.az
