Moreover, it lives in fear of facing an offside situation in the South Caucasus. As Moscow loses ground politically, at the diplomatic table, it is trying to compensate by escalating tensions in Karabakh.
Provocations take place in Karabakh right before the meetings in Washington, Brussels and Chisinau. Russia has used its leverage in Armenia and wants to hinder peace by all means.
As soon as the war ended in November 2020, Russia took the lead. The signing of the Trilateral Statement of November 10 and the deployment of a 1,960-strong military contingent in Karabakh brought Russia to the forefront. In January 2021, Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan met in Moscow, with Putin moderating. However, over time, the West has outmaneuvered Russia on the Karabakh issue, mainly in peace talks. The Brussels negotiating table is a perfect example of this. Subsequently, meetings were also held in Washington. Although the main center of the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations is Brussels, the controlling interest is in the hands of Washington. The American factor is the reality of the time. It is inescapable.
Russia concludes that what is happening is delivering a fatal blow to its authority and influence in the region. Because of this, it is trying to block Western peace initiatives. The statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry on the situation in Karabakh, made on July 15, is the result of this line of thinking. So, we move on to the next stage. The Russians have taken off their masks, revealed their true face and started to come at us.
What will be our response? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan has given an appropriate response to Russia’s statement. This is only the beginning. It is not impossible that diplomatic clashes will lead to increased escalation on the border.
Azerbaijan has always been sensitive in its approach to relations with Russia, trying to keep things soft, prioritizing peace and cooperation over war. Since Vladimir Putin came to power, relations between the two countries have normalized considerably. Putin is the only Russian leader in the last 200 years under whom Azerbaijan has not lost land. On the contrary, it was under Putin that we were able to liberate the territories occupied under Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin. But, even under Putin, Russia’s tolerance for Azerbaijan has a limit. Putin probably thinks that since he has done so much, the conclusion should come with his involvement and moderation, too. He does not want to yield this advantage to the West. However, the peace format proposed by the Russian president is not that fair and reliable.
Serious issues were discussed at the meeting in Brussels. As can be seen from Charles Michel’s statement, some major agreements and understandings have been reached. For example, if we are not mistaken, the return of Western Azerbaijanis to their historical lands was put up for discussion for the first time. The main topic of the talks was the corridor connecting Nakhchivan with mainland Azerbaijan. The prospect of transportation of humanitarian cargoes to Karabakh along the Barda-Aghdam route was also discussed. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement being issued after this information was made public is not a coincidence. This is Russia’s response to the Brussels meeting.
Now, amid tensions between the two countries, one question comes to mind: with what resources will Azerbaijan fend off this Russian aggression?
Russia forgets one fact: after the 44-day war, Azerbaijan has become much stronger. It is a different country now. It is not running away from anyone. Iran is a vivid example. Tehran threatened us with an invasion, a missile attack, organized a terrorist attack on our embassy, an attempt at the life of our MP, etc. Now it is flattering President Ilham Aliyev as it seeks reconciliation.
Azerbaijan and Türkiye are building a new geopolitical configuration. Aliyev and Erdoğan are implementing serious projects in the region. Integration of the Turkic world is taking place thanks to the two leaders. The ideal of Turan is becoming a reality. In parallel, there is a full and broad rapprochement with the West. Peace talks in Washington, Brussels and the lifting of NATO veto imposed by Türkiye on Sweden mean that there is an understanding in a broad sense between the West-NATO duo and the Azerbaijan-Türkiye tandem. But this is by no means a betrayal of written and oral agreements with Russia. On the contrary, it is Russia that is not abiding by its signature, its words. For example, Paragraph 4 of the November 10 document clearly states that the illegal Armenian armed groups deployed in Khankendi and other areas must be withdrawn. This is Armenia’s commitment. But its fulfillment must be regulated by Russia. Who will respect a state that does not respect its own commitments and its own signature?! Incidentally, President Erdoğan’s statement at the NATO summit in Vilnius that Russian peacekeepers would withdraw from Karabakh in 2025 was a reminder to Putin and a call to “take responsibility for your signature.”
In any case, Russia has not forgotten the Shusha Declaration. It has not forgotten that Türkiye is in Karabakh, in Azerbaijan, in every sense of the word. If it makes a mistake, it will see Türkiye in front of itself as well. We believe that Putin is not a foolish enough politician to open a second front.
Regardless, Azerbaijan approaches relations with Russia sensitively for sustainable peace. It does not create a context for a complete severing of relations. Frankly speaking, this is not what official Moscow wants either. Russia should realize that it cannot go out of the boundaries of equal good-neighborly relations with Azerbaijan. It is neither a province nor a subject of Russia.
In the future, Russia will still be the nail that can rip the wounds open. We must hold Moscow’s hand and squeeze it so that it does not put this nail to use…
Azer Aykhan
Translated from Globalinfo.az
