So, the European Union has approved the start of negotiations with Armenia on visa liberalization. In light of this, the EU Foreign Affairs Council expressed satisfaction with the development, and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan called the decision “historic,” referring to it as a “very important milestone in the Armenia-EU partnership, based on shared values and principles.” Naturally, official Paris couldn’t stay out of this, with French Ambassador to Armenia Olivier Decottignies calling the start of the visa liberalization dialogue “an important step reflecting the Armenian people’s aspiration towards Europe.”
It is undeniable that the EU is courting Armenia to such an extent that Brussels has turned a blind eye to a glaring (from their perspective) fact: the trade turnover between Moscow and Yerevan has increased fivefold over the past two years, from $1.5 billion to $7.3 billion. As Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev remarked at the II Shusha Global Media Forum, “It is very interesting to us how Armenia managed to increase its exports so much. The question, as they say, is rhetorical.”
Of course, it is rhetorical because it is quite obvious to all interested parties that the mentioned figures are due to Armenia bypassing anti-Russian sanctions. This is confirmed by the June 2024 editorial in Deutsche Welle, which stated that considering the embargo on Russian diamonds processed in third countries, effective in full from September 1 this year, Armenia has been chosen as a “window” for bypassing Western sanctions (as a channel for supplying diamonds to the global market). Armenia has extensive experience in transiting Russian gold, which has been under embargo since 2022.
But doesn’t it seem that the EU is not only ignoring this but also encouraging Yerevan to take further steps in this direction? Undoubtedly, this highlights the geopolitical aspect of Brussels’ latest attempt to secure a foothold in the South Caucasus, while downplaying Armenian-Russian relations.
Simultaneously, some analysts predict the imminent influx of cheap labor from Armenia (a non-Muslim country) into Europe, which, according to some representatives of Armenian society, will inevitably lead to an exacerbation of the demographic crisis in the country.
Considering this, it is noteworthy that the Armenian community itself has a rather contradictory view of the situation. For instance, Andranik Tevanyan, leader of the “Mother Armenia” movement, called the visa liberalization dialogue “a European bluff, akin to promises of a paradise life.” He identified the main goal of this as Brussels’ support for “Nikol Pashinyan’s government, which pursues anti-Russian and anti-Iranian policies.” According to Tevanyan, visa liberalization negotiations were once used to “placate Ukrainians, only to later use them as cannon fodder. The results are evident.”
In other words, certain political forces in Armenia foresee the challenges the state will eventually face due to the Armenian government’s ill-considered policies.
Meanwhile, as Ilham Aliyev openly stated at the II Shusha Forum, Azerbaijan is “deeply disappointed” with the attitude of certain Western elites towards our country. He emphasized the existence of a “one-sided approach” among these elites, attempts to “draw dividing lines in the Caucasus.” A prime example of this was the April meeting between the U.S. Secretary of State, the President of the European Commission, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, and Mr. Pashinyan, which Aliyev called “very strange,” as well as plans to finance the strengthening of Armenia’s military power through the so-called European Peace Facility.
“And all this is directed against us, which is absolutely unacceptable.” However, Aliyev noted, “despite all your billions, they have failed, and we have succeeded. We have restored Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territory, which was under occupation, by force and political means.”
Thus, it appears that the EU continues to use Armenia as its own (handheld) tool to achieve geopolitical goals. But as noted above, some representatives of the Armenian establishment are beginning to realize the realities in the South Caucasus. And Aliyev’s logic helps them predict the problems that could shake Armenian society to its core.
In conclusion, let’s refer once more to Aliyev, who said that despite the biased attitude towards Azerbaijan, “we do not stand up for ourselves or put on a show.” But this does not mean “we lack potential; we have it. And everyone who has dealt with us knows this.” The point is that “this potential can be used for common good purposes, including consolidation and partnership.” This raises the question of why Yerevan, instead of building relationships with neighboring countries, seeks happiness far beyond the region? Or is Armenia still so geopolitically dependent that it cannot make decisions in its favor?
Simply put, Baku invited Yerevan to the COP29 climate summit. So why not shake the extended hand and instead move towards the European continent, which has taken no special steps in favor of Armenia over the past decades? And likely will not take any.
But never mind. If Yerevan prefers to feel like a non-sovereign state and undermine the country from within, it can stick to its opinion. But in this case, it might be better to admit in advance that Armenia may not even catch the last carriage of the unified Karabakh train.
Teymur Atayev
Translated from minval.az
