Recently, following talks between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Kazakhstan, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs made a statement: “France welcomes the new round of talks between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which took place on May 10 and 11 in Almaty.” Paris “emphasizes the importance of both parties reaffirming their commitment to the Almaty Declaration of 1991 and the mutual recognition of each other’s territorial integrity as a basis for this process, in continuation of the quadrilateral meeting in Prague on October 7, 2022.”
Additionally, it was stated that “France calls for the continuation of defining the borders on the basis of the principles accepted in the declaration of April 19, 2024, and in continuation of the first demarcation efforts carried out on the spot,” and also “to continue discussions with the aim of signing a peace treaty between the two countries.” The initiative of the Kazakhstan authorities to facilitate the negotiations was also welcomed, promising to “continue working with our partners to establish a fair and lasting peace in the South Caucasus in accordance with international law.”
At first glance, this appears as normal diplomatic courtesy and a routine statement. However, it actually represents a deafening diplomatic failure.
Just a day earlier, France’s envoy to Armenia, Olivier Decottignies, once again lashed out at Azerbaijan, accusing our country of “occupying Armenian territory.” Yet, there was no mention of this in the MFA’s statement—despite Decottignies citing the Prime Minister of France. Paris prudently did not risk including such a level of falsehood in the MFA’s statement. Whether they managed to avoid retaliatory measures from Azerbaijan remains an open question.
The beginning of the delimitation and demarcation of borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia was welcomed not only by the main external players but also by countries not involved in the settlement process. France kept silent. And now it suddenly decided to get involved? It seems like an attempt to “jump on the last train.” Whether French diplomacy managed to do this is a big question.
In reality, if Paris thinks that Baku eagerly awaited this statement, that is a deep misconception. No one in Baku expected any reaction from Quai d’Orsay, and when it appeared, the statement of the French MFA was hardly taken seriously.
Moreover, France is not a country whose statements should be taken into account. Too often, Paris’s words do not match its actions. This is visible not only in the South Caucasus but also in other regions, for example, in the Ukrainian direction, where Emmanuel Macron’s “maneuvers” raise questions. France is also not averse to betraying its partners, as seen by its actions in Iraq, Libya, and Ukraine.
Moreover, due to its anti-Azerbaijani policy and retaliatory measures from Azerbaijani diplomacy, France has essentially been excluded from the process of normalizing relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And if Paris is now trying to create the appearance of its participation in the process, this may impress only those who are not aware of the real situation.
In practice, Paris has been sidelined just as it has been pushed out of Africa and excluded from the AUKUS alliance. Thus, the political chronicle of the South Caucasus matches the statement of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, who said during the ceremonial handing over of apartment keys to the first residents returning to Shusha: “I want to say again to the Azerbaijani people and those interested in this region: from now on, not a single step should be made without agreeing with us. I am confident that they hear me, they know: if I say something, I do it.” It can be added: if someone tries to act against our country, they are out of the game.
What now remains for France to do? Apart from statements aimed at creating the impression that Paris is still active in the process?
Theoretically, it has opportunities. For example, it can continue, along with the USA, to pressure Georgia, where it has supporters such as the current President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili, who originally came to Tbilisi as the French ambassador and still speaks French better than Georgian.
However, France’s policy does not enjoy widespread support in Georgia, as confirmed by election results. As for Armenia, France encourages Pashinyan with words but in practice supports the Dashnaks, who are in staunch opposition to him. The situation in Armenia is becoming increasingly unpredictable, and the risk of civil war and a military coup is growing. Thus, as a result of Paris’s “wise policy,” Armenia may become a second Lebanon with all the ensuing consequences.
Interestingly, do Emmanuel Macron and Sebastien Sejourne really believe that they can cover themselves with this statement as if it were a fig leaf?
Nurani
Translated from minval.az
