In an article published on April 24, it discussed President Ilham Aliyev’s “courtesy visit” to Moscow on April 22, amidst the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh.
Le Monde notes that while Azerbaijanis are satisfied with the Russian troops’ withdrawal, President Aliyev, mindful of diplomatic etiquette, acknowledged Russia as “a fundamental country for regional security in the Caucasus and beyond” at the end of his meeting with Putin. The departure of Russian peacekeepers had been anticipated since Azerbaijan’s military quickly took full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, although their mandate was not set to end until 2025. Following the November 2020 agreement, there was no longer a reason for the presence of the 2,000-strong Russian peacekeeping force in the separatist region, according to Baku-based independent researcher Shujaat Ahmedzade.
The newspaper, known for its left-liberal views, highlights that official Baku has yet to comment on the peacekeepers’ departure and presents the view of political scientist Ahmedzade, who believes that by this decision, Russia preserved its image since official Baku has consistently opposed the stationing of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. However, Azerbaijan agreed to their deployment when the 44-day war was halted by Russian mediation in 2020.
Le Monde also points out that the balance of power in the region shifted after Russia began its military intervention against Ukraine in February 2022. “Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus has weakened, and Azerbaijan has seized this gap to strengthen its alliance with Turkey. As a result, Ankara is evidently replacing Russia, which was once considered the regional ‘patron power,'” writes the Paris-based publication.
According to Le Monde, after Azerbaijan’s victory in Karabakh with Turkey’s support, President Aliyev is becoming an increasingly important player in the region. The war in Ukraine has created conditions for the Azerbaijani president to exert greater influence diplomatically and economically.
“Azerbaijan is today a very important partner not only for Russia but also for the West, to whom it supplies gas,” states the article. “To reduce dependence on Russia, the European Union signed a new gas agreement with Baku in July 2022, under which Azerbaijan is to double its fuel volumes for sale to Europe by 2027. Having lost the First Karabakh War, Azerbaijan managed to become a military power thanks to oil money. According to political scientist Ahmedzade, Azerbaijan has already become a middle-power state comparable to Poland or Kazakhstan.”
Le Monde cites Kirill Krivosheev, an expert on the Caucasus, who noted that Azerbaijan has proven its ability to resolve issues “semi-independently,” adhering to the principle of “might makes right.” The expert believes, “Russia wanted to turn Nagorno-Karabakh into an Ossetia or Transnistria and keep its peacekeepers there indefinitely. But Azerbaijan managed to impose its terms.”
In conclusion, the Le Monde observer notes that Armenia, suffering from the strengthening of its northern neighbor and constantly under military pressure, “behaves well” in negotiations on border demarcation and has already agreed to return four villages occupied in the early 1990s to Azerbaijan.
