Globalinfo.az spoke with Israeli political analyst and ITON.TV commentator Alexander Gur-Arie about Israel’s strike on Qatar and the recent tensions in Ankara–Tel Aviv relations.
We present the interview below:
“Trump Gave Hamas His Final Offer”
– Two days ago, Israel announced it had accepted the ceasefire proposal put forward by U.S. President Donald Trump in Gaza. Yet at that very moment, Israel launched a strike on Qatar. How should this be understood?
– President Trump made Hamas a final offer: release all hostages and halt military operations during that period. He personally guaranteed that Israel would not continue military action during or after the negotiations. In other words, talks toward a final settlement were underway, but Hamas was expected to lay down arms and leave Gaza. Israel immediately accepted the proposal, which had already been coordinated in advance.
For two years now, Hamas has followed the same pattern: agreeing at first and then introducing changes and additions. This time was no different. It should also be emphasized that Hamas leaders in Doha control fortunes worth billions of dollars—wealth accumulated from donations that Europeans and Americans gave for the welfare of the Palestinian people. These funds were stolen. If, over the decades, the money collected for Gaza had been invested there, Gaza would look more like Kuwait today. Instead, Hamas responded with “we’ll think about it.” Trump then made it clear: if they refused, something very bad would happen. As president of the world’s leading power, he had little choice but to indirectly negotiate with terrorists. And when Hamas once again stalled, Trump gave the green light.
“The Operation Was Months in the Making”
– It was said that Trump knew about the strike beforehand, while Qatar claims it was notified only ten minutes after the attack. How do you explain this?
– The operation to eliminate them in Qatar had been prepared for months. Its timing was Trump’s decision, influenced in part by the horrific terror attack in Jerusalem two days earlier, when civilians were gunned down at a bus stop. Hamas openly claimed responsibility, and just minutes later the strike was launched. This was no coincidence—crime was immediately followed by punishment.
Of course Qatar was informed. Their claim of being notified only ten minutes after the attack is nonsense. The entire operation was coordinated with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. Look at the map: Israeli aircraft flew over Jordanian and Saudi territory, and no air-defense systems attempted to stop them. They calmly returned the same way. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE all have strained relations with Qatar, and some even welcomed the strike.
One day before the operation, international media reported that Hamas negotiators had met with Qatar’s prime minister. According to Al-Jazeera, the prime minister pressed Hamas to accept Trump’s offer and later called the U.S. Secretary of State and Special Envoy Whitcoff, saying the talks were going nowhere. This also influenced the decision to proceed with the strike.
“Qatar First Withdrew, Then Returned”
– In your view, what consequences will Israel’s strike on Doha bring?
– It is too early to speak about definitive consequences. Qatar initially declared it was suspending its mediation efforts, and Israel turned to Egypt instead. But shortly afterward, Qatar issued a new statement saying it was ready to resume mediation “out of love for the Palestinian people” and concern over the continuation of the war.
Clearly, relations between Israel and Qatar are tense, but nothing serious is expected. As I noted, Sunni Arab neighbors are largely satisfied with the situation; aside from symbolic statements, little more should be expected. No country intends to withdraw from the Abraham Accords. Indeed, since the war began, not a single state has done so.
“A Türkiye–Israel Clash Is Highly Unlikely”
– Recently, tensions between Türkiye and Israel have grown. President Erdoğan said the SDG/YPG had failed to fulfill their integration commitments to the Syrian government, and during his meeting with MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, a symbolic ‘sword’ message was delivered. Could a military confrontation between Türkiye and Israel occur? How will relations develop?
– Israel’s interests in Syria collide with Türkiye’s. Türkiye has long been expanding its presence in the north: it runs local administrations, its currency circulates, and it is extending influence further south, even seeking to push out Russian bases and reach the Israeli border. Israel, however, has lobbied for those Russian bases to remain, preferring Russia’s presence there over Türkiye’s.
A military clash cannot be ruled out completely, but the likelihood is very low. As a NATO member, Türkiye cannot start or end a war without the alliance’s consent. Meanwhile, Israel’s air force has demonstrated its power repeatedly in operations against Iran and the Houthis—no other air force in the region or the world has done anything comparable. Erdoğan understands this.
Moreover, Türkiye’s economy is in crisis, with extremely high inflation that directly affects the electorate. After Erdoğan’s fiery speeches, Turkish markets often crash for days. Yet predicting his exact next move is difficult.
