The IRGC has not been designated as a terrorist organization as such; it would require a court of at least one EU member state pass such a judgment in an investigation of a specific act of terrorism. Still, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian published an article in Al Jazeera, accusing the EU of a biased position and unjustified decisions and threatening that branding the IRGC a terrorist organization would be a colossal mistake. This altercation in itself shows how tense relations between Brussels and Tehran are.
It is against this background that the EU Council confirms its intention to send a monitoring mission to Armenia, a key ally of Iran. Moreover, despite the fact that this mission is presented as a civilian one, it looks more like a military mission. We can guess that there will be a lot of intelligence officers among those observers. They will have to work in a region that is very sensitive for both Armenia and Iran. Concerns have been raised in Armenia itself as to whether the placement of the EU mission will have a negative impact on the country’s relations with Iran.
But Iran itself is being blithely silent about the deployment of the EU mission. This is surprising to say the least.
Could it be that the arrival of the European observers came as a complete surprise to Iran and they simply did not have time to formulate a position? Even though it was not yesterday that Armenia began to “cuddle” with France and the EU, both literally and figuratively? Similarly, Tehran “did not notice” Nancy Pelosi’s anti-Iranian statements in Yerevan.
This gives reason to believe that a good moremover has been played against Iran. Armenia and its Western patrons have expertly turned Tehran’s attention to other directions—and confronted Iran with a Western mission on the Iranian border. With all that it entails. Tehran searched for mythical “Zionists” in Azerbaijan, cried “terrorists” whom nobody, except the Iranians themselves, have seen, strained to the extreme relations with Azerbaijan, who has its own ways and means to influence the situation in Iran, including the use of “soft power”, and as a result it diverted Iran’s attention from the main “risk factor”, the EU mission in Armenia. Or rather, from the West’s attempts to entrench itself in the region, starting with Armenia, a key ally of Iran and Russia.
Consequently, Iran has made a big strategic mistake. It got carried away with mythical “threats” from Azerbaijan, damaged relations with Baku and fell into a trap set in Armenia. Now the trap has slammed shut, leaving Iran not to look for mythical “Zionists” in Azerbaijan, but to respond to the presence of a very suspicious mission in “fraternal Armenia”.
And now, some behind the scenes context. There are countries that pursue a truly independent policy. These are the countries with which one builds thoughtful and long-term cooperation, tries to entice them to join their camp, etc. And there are, pardon the expression, sorry excuses for states that half-heartedly agree to play a tool of someone else’s policy and are willing to sell their partners at the drop of a hat. Obviously, Armenia should have started its real “reorientation” not with the EU mission, but at least with taking control over its own borders, to do which Yerevan still does not have the … well, we can leave the precise word to your imagination. However, Armenia seems to be quite ready to provide its territory to France for all sorts of operations against Iran and Russia without a fuss.
But it looks like Yerevan has not given any thought to the fact that such “brief liaisons” in politics very rarely entail any guarantees for when the “traditional” partners will feel that Armenia has become too wild and flirtatious and it is time to put it in its place. At any rate, one of the Russian Telegram channels closely affiliated with security agencies is already warning: “Russia is literally being squeezed out of Armenia under the shield of its friendship with France. The setup of this uncomplicated plot became obvious immediately after Pashinyan came to power, when CSTO Secretary General Yuri Khachaturov was arrested, and the treacherous plot continues to unfold: Armenia publicly refuses to sign joint declarations and conduct CSTO military exercises. And judging by what is happening right now, the climax is close. The ending of this ‘play’, unfortunately, will be tragic for the Armenian statehood.”
And the West is unlikely to genuinely defend it in this situation.
In short, by agreeing to play the role of a “doormat” at the door to South Caucasus for France, under the noses of Russia and Iran, Armenia should not be surprised and offended when they wipe their feet on it.
Nurani
Translated from Minval.az
