Over the past decades, by occasionally, but purposefully, staging provocations on the border and on the line of contact, Armenia miscalculated, believing those armed clashes to be a simple and routine military act under ceasefire. That is why, to all appearances, the Armenian military-political establishment constantly lied so skillfully to its people about its military “achievements” that on September 27 and afterwards Armenians were not ready for the scale of combat operations that were observed throughout the Patriotic War.
We all remember very well how information about human and territorial losses was perceived by Armenians as extremely painful, while insignificant “positive” news from the frontlines caused wild euphoria. Therefore, the outcome of the war, which did not bode well for Armenia from the very beginning, came as a shock to the society, which was split into several camps.
Some put the blame for the defeat in the war on the country’s leadership, others believe that this was not the direct fault of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and that the surrender was the result of corruption over the past 30 years, while someone else…
Be that as it may, Armenia should have been aware of one golden rule: you cannot build your happiness on someone else’s misfortune. Sooner or later Azerbaijan was going to restore historical justice, which it did under the leadership of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, President Ilham Aliyev.
Azerbaijan’s local anti-terrorism measures in September 2023 were aimed at a general cleaning of the residual separatist trash in the Karabakh economic region, finally putting an end to Armenian separatism in the territory of Azerbaijan. At last, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan was fully restored.
Since then, there had been a lull on the state border. However, yesterday Armenia nevertheless decided to engage in another provocation. On the section of the conditional state border running through the territory of Zangilan District, sniper fire was opened from the position of the Armenian Armed Forces located in the direction of the village of Nerkin-And in Kafan District on the positions of the border troops of the State Border Service near the village of Kollugishlak in Zangilan District. What lies behind this military provocation? What prompted Armenia to suddenly take this despicable move? Why is the EU mission in the region still keeping silent about these provocations? What processes can these steps of Armenia lead to in the coming days? The US and France continue to aggravate the situation by maintaining their presence in Armenia. All these developments are a serious blow to the peace process.
To find some answers to these questions, we approached an expert, military journalist Heydar Mirza.
“The first thing worth paying attention to is that after the latest pinpoint anti-terrorism measures, which resulted in the full restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity last September, we have been and are essentially moving towards peace,” the analyst says. “Yes, there are certain discussions around the terms on which we are moving towards this peace. However, based on the latest interview of President Ilham Aliyev and what is happening in the Armenian political dimension, i.e., what we see in their media, yes, there are some frictions, but in general we are on the way to reach a peace agreement. We are well aware that we are moving and striving towards this very goal. The most important thing in this context is that the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan has been restored. But there are other issues as well. For example, the Zangezur corridor, i.e., issues that have to do with bilateral relations and that are part of regional and global politics, and it is not by chance that these issues are commented not only by both sides, but also by other interested centers of power, such as the ambassadors of the Russian Federation in Azerbaijan and Armenia, the European Union and others.
“Getting back to the main issue, I must say that the incident that took place yesterday after a long lull was committed in an open and brazen form, there is video evidence of how this provocation was carried out. Second, this provocation took place not immediately, but a few days after the presidential election in Azerbaijan, which was held for the first time across the entire territory of the sovereign Azerbaijani state. That is, in a sense, it can be regarded as a negative message sent by the Armenian side or those forces that are currently interested in destabilizing and delaying the process of signing a peace treaty, perhaps at their own behest. This provocation was carried out precisely in the interval between the presidential election with the unconditional victory of the President and his inauguration.
“It was both a symbolic and negative message to Azerbaijan, which is not good. For Armenia in the first place.
“As for the military-operational situation, I would like to note that there will definitely be a response from our side. And as we have already seen, it was not long in coming, as stated by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan. That is, there is nothing to discuss here in military-operational terms. I think that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces have such a total superiority over the enemy both in terms of adequate response and proactive attitude that the retaliation followed lightning fast and it did not surprise anyone.
“The main focus now should be on the political statement. The Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan has already responded to the military incident, saying that after the military provocation that resulted in the wounding of an Azerbaijani soldier, the Azerbaijani side eliminated the threat posed by the Armenian military post and this was solely a retaliatory measure. ‘Azerbaijan is committed to the peace process and calls on the Armenian side to avoid military escalation, which may jeopardize efforts in this direction,’ the Foreign Ministry’s comment stressed.
“We will also see how the international community will react, because there is another important factor: we know that there is a group of European Union civilian observers on Armenian territory. And the fact that the provocation and, consequently, Operation Vengeance takes place when the observers are there and after a seemingly stable quiet, when there are no reasons for such escalations, I believe this is a rhetorical question: why is this happening in front of their eyes and will they make any statement about what happened? We will be waiting.”
Abulfaz Babazade
Translated from br.az
