The nexus between “climate change, peace and security” has been at the centre of attention for many years. It is not only about how climate change is exacerbating environmental conditions, increasing the prospects for conflict on owning and sharing resources, and accentuating already existing problems, such as for example water shortage in the Sahel, but it is also about how conflicts are contributing directly to a worsening environmental situation, increasing the gravity of climate change. With major climatic incidents now a regular occurrence across the world, and from which no one is spared, minds have recently become more focused.
In a recent decision, the Council of the European Union spoke of an increasing need for the international community to develop a shared and enhanced understanding that climate change and environmental degradation lead to spiralling instability and conflicts, and vice versa, as well as to human suffering, resource scarcity including water and food insecurity, internal displacement and forced migration.
This recognition of the nexus between Climate Change Peace and Security is however not universally recognised. In June 2023 the UN Security Council failed to support a UAE initiative that makes the linkage. As the hosts of COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, the UAE took the initiative to bring the discussion within a COP context. Here again, there was no consensus, with Russia, China and some of the countries in the Global South resisting, But the UAE persisted, and found a way through which they could do three things: insert the theme in the proceedings of COP28; establish a dedicated day during the COP summit where the focus was peace, and push for the adoption, even if not by consensus of the “COP28 declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace“.
This was a big achievement, but only a start. It is clear that what was achieved in Dubai needs to be consolidated and developed in Baku in November 2024.
Last week, participants from around thirty 30 academic institutions, think tanks and civil society organisations met in Bonn to review the work done on this topic at COP28 in Dubai in December and chart a way forward for ensuring the continuation of the process at the COP29 meeting in Baku in November. The Dialogue Meeting on the topic: “Climate Change Peace and Security – COP 29 and Beyond” was attended also by representatives of the UAE COP28 Presidency, Azerbaijan’s COP29 Presidency, the Secretariat of the UN Climate Change Convention and the German Government. The Bonn Dialogue Meeting was an initiative of LINKS Europe Foundation, CANDID Foundation and Restart Initiative. The message from the meeting was clear: Climate Change, Peace and Security need to be on the agenda of COP29. LINKS Europe will now co-ordinate a contact group that will work with COP stakeholders between now and November to take these ideas forward.
COP29 can be a summit of peace
Whilst the correlation between Climate, Peace and Security merits its inclusion on the COP29 agenda there are a number of other reasons why COP29 can be a summit of peace. Let us not forget that the holding of COP29 in Baku was decided last year by a unanimous decision of State Parties to the Convention, including Armenia. This was the result of an unprecedented agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the 7 December joint declaration, which is one of the most significant confidence-building measures between the two countries. Armenia and Azerbaijan are on the verge of signing a historic peace treaty that would end decades of conflict between them. The circus that usually accompanies a COP event – hundreds of heads of state with their retinues, thousands of delegates and tens of thousands of representatives of civil society, academia, business and media – cannot simply sail into Baku ignoring this context. It is right therefore that whilst the focus must remain on achieving the primary objective, namely securing the resources and the political will for the battle against climate change to be fought with urgency and successfully, putting the theme of peace at the centre of the Baku event is hugely appropriate. Those who claim it will be a distraction from the real agenda of COP simply ignore reality, and will be equivalent to going to Brazil for COP30 next year and not talking about the Rain Forest.
The Azerbaijan government, host of COP29 was initially reluctant to go too far in the inclusion of the peace agenda in COP29 but they have now warmed up to the idea. Over the weekend, the Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor, Hikmet Haciyev, spoke about the possibility of having a COP truce during the Baku summit. There are more than a hundred ongoing armed conflicts in the world. Securing a cease-fire in even one of them would be positive and welcome, but may be very difficult to achieve. A COP29 cease-fire may be an aspiration, but the focus should be on more tangible objectives, and particularly on building on what has been already achieved in COP28.
This can include:
• Having the theme Climate Change, Peace and Security as a theme of COP29; More specifically in Baku the focus should be on water scarcity; food insecurity and landmine contamination and the linkage between conflict and environmental degradation
• Having a dedicated day of peace in the COP29 programme, with the participation of the UN Secretary-General, and a gathering of Nobel Peace Price winners
• Adopting a new declaration, building on the one agreed in Dubai in November, which would also have the possibility of signatories presenting packages that could be practical tools for moving forward some of the ideas contained in it.
All this is doable. There are then other issues on which work needs to be done, but which are also achievable. Will COP29 be historic also because it would be the first time an Armenian leader visits Baku since the long conflict of the last three decades? Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan does not shy away from difficult decisions. He can very well see the value of this gesture, particularly since in Baku he will not only be welcomed by the leader of Azerbaijan, but by the biggest gathering of world leaders ever to gather in the South Caucasus. President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan can co-host a special event at the dedicated Peace Day. Imagine the significance of that!
All the ingredients exist to make COP29 in Baku a historic summit of peace and it should not be missed. But there is much work to be done yet, and the negativity of the malcontents needs to be overcome.
