India’s relations with Azerbaijan are among the least studied and even less understood. The present day relationship between the two countries is built on historical, cultural, and economic ties that manifested via the ancient Silk Road. During my recent visit to Azerbaijan, evidence of this slice of history is seen at the Ateshgah fire temple near Baku, an 18th-century monument with wall inscriptions in Devanagari and Gurmukhi, and the 14th-century Multani Caravanserai in the town of Icherisheher, which is the oldest inhabited part of Baku.
The website of the Indian Embassy in Baku encapsulates the bilateral relations as follows: “India and Azerbaijan have friendly relations, based on civilizational linkages, cultural affinities, and shared values of understanding and respect for other cultures.” And yet, after 11 years in office, the country hasn’t figured in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s itinerary. No president from Azerbaijan has ever visited India since its formation in 1991. In recent years, the supply of Indian arms to Armenia, and Azerbaijan’s perceived proximity to Pakistan and China, seem to have created misperceptions in the bilateral relationship.
But all is not lost.
On April 8, 2025, I attended the 7th ADA Policy Forum – under the theme “Facing the New World Order” – at Karabakh University in Khankendi, a sprawling university campus with state of the art facilities in the newly reconstructed province of Nagorno-Karabakh. The forum is jointly organized by ADA University and the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), Baku; more than 80 international experts representing global think tanks from 44 countries participated. A wide spectrum of topics was discussed, including the new world order, economic transformation, the digital revolution, global energy security, the impact of technologies on the global distribution of power, sustainable development approaches, and voices from the Global South.
The forum continued its deliberations at ADA University, Baku, on April 9 with active participation of policymakers, practitioners, media personnel, and students. President Ilham Aliyev addressed the forum, highlighting the strategic significance of hosting such discussions in Azerbaijan, particularly in the reconstructed territory of Khankendi. The forum continued with discussions focused on Azerbaijan’s role in shaping regional peace and its contribution to global dialogue amid complex geopolitical transformations.
India’s quest for a foothold in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, combined with Baku’s desire for business and connectivity, could provide a much-needed opportunity to transform the bilateral relations.
The people-to-people connection and the increasing Indian tourist footfall in Azerbaijan could be a harbinger of change.
In 2023, Azerbaijan saw a significant increase in tourism from India, with over 115,000 Indian visitors, nearly double the number of arrivals in 2022. In 2024, the figures doubled again, with 243,000 Indian tourists landing in Azerbaijan. As the fourth-largest source of inbound tourists to Azerbaijan, after Russia, Turkiye, and Iran, India stands as the largest source of tourists for the country when excluding neighboring countries. Apart from a host of Indian carriers, the national carrier Azerbaijan Airlines operates 11 flights per week connecting Baku with three Indian cities – Delhi, Mumbai, and Ahmedabad.
New Delhi should be taking advantage of these winds of change to advances its ties with the largest economy in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan’s favorable business climate and India’s growing demand for goods and services present an excellent opportunity for trade expansion. India is the seventh-largest trading partner of Azerbaijan, with bilateral trade totaling $1.44 billion in 2023. Azerbaijan has become an attractive investment destination, connecting Europe, Central Asia, Russia, and the Indian subcontinent via the mostly dormant International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). The INSTC, of which Azerbaijan became a part in 2005, is especially crucial to India’s economic and connectivity interests, as it continues to explore options to enhance its direct reach with Russia and Europe.
Another area of collaboration between India and Azerbaijan could be the field of energy. Azerbaijan, rich in oil and natural gas reserves, presents India with an opportunity to diversify its energy sources. The Southern Gas Corridor, which connects Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field to Europe, exemplifies the potential of this energy partnership. Azerbaijan, as a key player in the Caspian region, is well-positioned to offer India access to its oil and gas resources.
In early April 2025, Modi wrote to Aliyev, extending greetings on the occasion of Eid as the month of Ramadan concluded. This was their first communication after Aliyev invited Modi to attend the COP29 summit in Baku. After the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, Azerbaijan issued a condolence message to India — a gesture significant given Azerbaijan’s historically close ties with Pakistan. In another notable diplomatic shift, Aliyev refrained from commenting on the Kashmir issue during a press conference in February 2025 when he hosted Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Baku. This silence was construed as a diplomatic balancing act, signaling Azerbaijan’s growing interest in strengthening its relationship with India.
As a rising power with ambitions of extending its influence beyond the troubled neighborhood, New Delhi has to make a smart choice between staying captive to such short-term incidentals or expanding its horizon that has larger economic and strategic benefits in this underexplored relationship. Amid changing regional and global alignments, the time to throw the dice has arrived.
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
