The poignant image of dismantling a Christmas tree adorned with miniature airplanes at Heydar Aliyev Airport underscores the somber tone of the event. December 26th has been declared a day of mourning in Azerbaijan. Efforts are underway to assist survivors and evacuate them back to Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Kazakh residents are donating blood, and flowers are being laid at the Azerbaijani embassy in Astana.
The investigation into the crash is just beginning, but one thing is already clear: the crew of the aircraft—both pilots and flight attendants—acted with remarkable professionalism and heroism. Steering a damaged aircraft to Aktau, avoiding residential areas at the last second, and opting to land on a sandy shore rather than water—a choice that likely saved every survivor—demonstrates exceptional skill and calm under pressure. The pilots’ actions not only preserved the lives of over 30 passengers but potentially spared countless others on the ground. Videos recorded by passengers during the harrowing descent further highlight the flight attendants’ composure and professionalism.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev interrupted his working visit to Russia to return to Baku and dispatched senior Azerbaijani officials to Aktau to address urgent matters. The first meeting of the state commission investigating the crash has already taken place, and Azerbaijan’s General Prosecutor’s Office has launched a criminal investigation. While the root cause of the AZAL crash will take time to determine, preliminary hypotheses are beginning to emerge.
Initially, reports suggested that dense fog prevented the plane from landing in Grozny, leading air traffic controllers to redirect it first to Makhachkala and then to Aktau. However, during the flight, the plane reportedly collided with a flock of birds.
Later, the narrative shifted. Leaked information indicated that Grozny was under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time the Embraer aircraft was scheduled to land. In such cases, a “Carpet” protocol is enacted, and air defense systems are activated. Chechen authorities indirectly confirmed the operation of air defense systems, stating that all drones had been neutralized.
If airspace for civilian flights was not closed during such an operation, it raises serious concerns. Collisions with drones pose a severe threat even to large airliners, underscoring why major airports worldwide strictly prohibit drone activity. Additionally, the activation of air defense systems can itself pose significant risks to civilian aircraft.
Historical precedents only heighten these concerns. In January 2020, an Iranian air defense system mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian airliner near Tehran amid heightened tensions with the United States. Similarly, in September 2018, a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane was accidentally downed by Syrian air defense during an Israeli airstrike.
Survivors of the AZAL crash reported hearing “two bangs” as the plane circled Grozny, after which the pilots, dealing with a compromised control system, diverted to Aktau—a region free from drones and air defense operations. Video footage from the final moments of the flight reveals oxygen masks deployed in the cabin, indicative of depressurization, and unusual holes in a life vest and the aircraft’s tail section, sparking speculation about bullet or shrapnel damage.
The decision by AZAL to cancel flights to Grozny and Makhachkala, while continuing to operate Embraer aircraft, adds another layer of intrigue to the unfolding investigation. While it is premature to draw definitive conclusions about responsibility for the crash, it is evident that the causes must be meticulously examined.
If evidence emerges linking the crash to drone strikes or air defense activity, it would mean Azerbaijani citizens have become collateral victims of the ongoing Ukrainian conflict—a war increasingly characterized by “no rules.” Such findings would demand a reevaluation of the criteria used to designate airspace as safe for civilian operations.
Regions like Chechnya and Dagestan, while not active war zones like Ukraine’s Kherson or Russia’s Kursk oblasts, are not immune to risks. Unlike Kyiv or Kharkiv, which face regular bombardments, no ICAO directive has closed airspace over the North Caucasus. However, the responsibility to restrict airspace falls primarily on Russia, which has been reluctant to disrupt southern airports critical for military logistics or to impose extended closures due to drone activity.
For now, Azerbaijan has taken its first step by suspending flights to Grozny and Makhachkala. The focus now must shift to honoring the deceased, supporting the injured, and acknowledging the courage and professionalism of the flight crew.
Nurani
Translated from minval.az
