Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, following his visit to Trump, has held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is evident that in the first days of Trump’s presidency, he will propose his own formula for resolution and promote it through leverage.
The military-political leadership of Ukraine and Russia is voicing its own visions for a potential truce, presenting maximal demands and expectations to one another as well as to third parties. For instance, Ukraine’s demands include NATO membership, while Russia ties a ceasefire to the easing of sanctions.
At present, Trump’s team seems to be structuring the negotiation agenda, determining venues and formats for the talks. Several countries are being considered as potential hosts:
Turkey has experience organizing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, maintains regular contact with both Moscow and Kyiv, and is deeply familiar with the details of the process. However, as a NATO member, Turkey’s relationship with Russia has evolved after the events in Syria and the collapse of the Astana format. Turkey may also be tempted to manipulate the process to its advantage in dealings with both Russia and the U.S./EU.
China and Brazil have proposed negotiation initiatives, but neither Kyiv nor Moscow has shown enthusiasm, citing the overly general frameworks and lack of specifics. Meanwhile, the Ukraine war is expected to become a key topic in U.S.-China relations.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Orbán has attempted to act as a mediator between Trump and Putin, with some success. However, Orbán struggles to establish contact with President Zelensky and is not accepted as a mediator in Kyiv.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India have played roles in message exchanges and prisoner swaps, maintaining balanced relations with Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv. However, it remains unclear whether Trump’s administration will include Ukraine negotiations in its agenda.
Negotiations could take place in various formats:
- Bilateral (Russia-Ukraine)
- Trilateral (Russia-U.S.-Ukraine)
- Russia-U.S. discussions about Ukraine without Ukraine
- U.S.-China discussions about Russia without Russia
Preparations for such negotiations involve shuttle diplomacy, secret diplomacy, and direct contacts in capitals or third countries to prepare for a main meeting.
Azerbaijan is a strong candidate for hosting these negotiations. Baku has experience organizing high-level meetings and has previously hosted discussions between the Russian and U.S./NATO chiefs of staff. Azerbaijan is not a member of NATO or the CSTO, ensuring its neutrality.
Baku has built trust with both Moscow and Kyiv. In early 2022, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited Kyiv (January 14) and Moscow (February 22), elevating bilateral relations with both nations. Recently, Azerbaijan was considered a mediator in discussions over Russian gas supplies to Europe. In February, during a meeting in Munich, President Zelensky asked President Aliyev to mediate the issue. While the matter remains unresolved, Azerbaijan’s role as a trusted intermediary is notable.
Unlike other potential hosts, Azerbaijan lacks the leverage or resources to manipulate the negotiation process. Additionally, it has no demands for compensation from Trump’s administration for mediating between Russia and Ukraine.
Given these factors, Azerbaijan has the opportunity and readiness to become a venue for negotiations addressing the Ukraine crisis.
Farhad Mammadov
