At the same time as Armenia’s relations with Russia have been deteriorating, Pashinyan has reached out to Europe and the US. Armenia has a lot of catching up with Ukraine to do; a decade ago, Armenian President Serzh Azati Sargsyan dropped plans to sign the EU Association Agreement (EUAA) with the EU and, without facing mass protests, instead joined Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union. An attempt by the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych to drop the EUAA led to the Euromaidan Revolution and pro-European revolutionaries coming to power.
Armenia’s pro-European rhetoric and disquiet with Putin belies its continued flirtation with Russia. Armenia, together with Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, is a leading re-exporter of Western goods to Russia thus helping to break Western sanctions. The US has warned Armenia against assisting Russia to receive sanctioned Western goods. Clearly, a massive boost in Armenia’s trade with Russia contradicts Pashinyan’s rhetoric about integrating into Europe.
A second contradiction lies in Armenia’s support for Assad’s brutal dictatorship. Four years after Russia militarily intervened into Syria to help defeat the opposition, Pashinyan sent Armenian servicemen to serve alongside Putin’s army supporting the criminal Assad regime in Syria. This decision came as a surprise as his pro-Russian predecessor Sargsyan had not countenanced such a move. The US condemned Armenia’s backing for Assad.
In 2021, Assad was re-elected in a fictional uncontested ‘election’ typical of Putin’s Russia. It would not be unusual for Putin who has transformed Russia into a dictatorship that has more political prisoners than in the Soviet Union. But why did Pashinyan, who came to power in a democratic revolution and claims he wants his country to integrate into Europe, send greetings to Assad?
Just over a year before Assad was overthrown, Armenia sent a high-level delegation of parliamentarians to Syria. The visit was led by Pashinyan’s close political ally, Deputy Chairman of Armenia’s Parliament Hakob Arshakyan. The Armenian media boasted about the success of the meeting of democratically elected Armenian parliamentarians with Assad’s fake parliamentarians.
The Armenian parliamentary delegation shared with its Syrian allies a copy of Pashinyan’s ‘Crossroads of Peace’ outlining steps their country is taking towards peace with its neighbours Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia.
Unfortunately, this is part of pattern. Armenia has cultivated a three-decade-long economic, and trade, and security relationship with Iran. Indeed, Armenian and Iranian leaders describe their relationship as a ‘strategic partnership.’ Armenia’s ‘strategic partnership’ with Iran is at odds with the EU’s imposing of sanctions on the Iranian regime for its ‘human rights abuses, nuclear proliferation activities and military support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.’
Armenia’s ‘strategic partnership’ with Iran will dampen its relationship with the US which also imposed sanctions on the Iranian regime. The incoming Trump administration is likely to give the green light to Israel to be more robust in its military attacks against Iran and support for regime change.
One has to ask why a country – Armenia – which seeks to integrate into Europe is cosying up to Syrian and Iranian dictators whose human rights records are abysmal?
Pashinyan may not understand the geopolitical minefield he has walked into and how his courting of pro-Russian dictator Assad will undermine important steps towards peace in the South Caucasus. Armenia assisted Assad to please Russia and irritate Türkiye, a policy which is now coming back to haunt Pashinyan.
It is no secret the overthrow of Assad was assisted by Türkiye. Türkiye is undoubtedly going to benefit strategically from the coming to power of a pro-Turkish regime and the removal of Russian military and naval forces from Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will not take kindly upon Armenia for supporting Assad who butchered 600,000 Sunni Muslims and made millions into refugees, with Turkey hosting most of them.
Pashinyan needs to take five steps to convince Europe and the US he is seriously committed to Armenia’s movement away from Russia, integration with Europe and peace with its neighbours.
The first is to formally withdraw from the CSTO.
The second is to begin negotiations to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union and revive the signing of the 2013 EUAA.
The third is to end Armenia’s role as a re-exporter of sanctioned Western goods to Russia.
The fourth is to condemn Assad’s regime and Russia’s role in facilitating war crimes.
The fifth is to end Armenia’s flirtation with Iran.
It is time for Armenian politicians to no longer send contradictory messages to different audiences and stop cosying up dictators like Assad and the Iranian theocracy. Only then will Brussels and Washington be able to welcome Armenia into the democratic community of countries.
Taras Kuzio is professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy. He is the author of Fascism and Genocide: Russa’s War Against Ukrainians (2023) and editor of Russian Disinformation and Western Scholarship (2023).
