The Armenian press reports that the country’s government has instructed the parliament, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and other structures and ministries related to Russia to maximize contacts in this direction.
“The relevant structures have been tasked with actively participating in all meetings along their respective lines, initiating trips and meetings,” the report states. “In short, to normalize relations. It is difficult to say what exactly has prompted this, but there are rumors in political circles suggesting that the authorities have realized that drastic shifts on the foreign policy front will lead to nothing good—neither politically nor economically, to put it mildly.”
Amid media publications, the press service of the Armenian parliament announced that Speaker Alen Simonyan will travel to Russia to participate in a meeting of the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly. It is noteworthy that during the period when relations between Moscow and Yerevan were quite tense, Simonyan did not participate in the assembly meetings—Armenia was usually represented by the deputy speaker at these forums. Now, however, Simonyan, widely known for his staunch anti-Russian stance, has decided to personally attend the event scheduled for March 6 in St. Petersburg.
“Yes, it is true, the Speaker of the National Assembly of Armenia will take part in the assembly in St. Petersburg,” the parliament’s press service confirmed.
Simonyan also informed journalists about the planned visit of the Chairwoman of the Federation Council of Russia, Valentina Matviyenko, to Yerevan.
“The dates of Matviyenko’s visit have been tentatively agreed upon—it will take place on June 5-6,” Simonyan stated.
Matviyenko’s upcoming visit to Yerevan was first announced back in January during a meeting in Moscow with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, confirming new trends in Armenian-Russian relations. As previously mentioned, Mirzoyan’s visit to Moscow, which took place after a long hiatus, was accompanied by noticeable changes in Armenian-Russian political contacts. Moscow shifted from a harsh, almost offensive rhetoric to a more constructive tone. Likewise, members of Pashinyan’s team also softened their stance, expressing interest in resolving the issues that had emerged in bilateral relations with Russia. All of this is happening against the backdrop of Armenia’s official course towards joining the European Union and the unexpectedly sharp rapprochement between the Trump administration and the Kremlin.
Politician Edmon Marukyan, who previously worked as an advisor to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan but resigned due to disagreements over the Armenian leader’s pro-Western course, stated that “the Armenian government is trying to normalize relations with Moscow with one hand while continuing to accuse Russia of crimes with the other.”
According to Marukyan, a pro-government expert, commenting on Matviyenko’s upcoming visit to Yerevan, claimed that her visit “will give new impetus to crimes against the Armenian people.”
“Do you want to normalize relations and establish interdepartmental contacts?” the former Pashinyan advisor exclaimed. “Then do it properly, without underhanded games. And if you don’t want to, if you consider Russians criminals, then why invite them to Yerevan? These visits and departures won’t help—the crisis in our relations will remain.”
Another Armenian expert, political analyst Arman Boshyan, who holds pro-Russian views, believes that despite the strategic agreement signed by Armenia with the U.S. during Biden’s presidency, the current Trump administration will not build relations with Yerevan outside of Russia’s influence. According to him, the new Washington team will not implement any agreements with Yerevan without considering Moscow’s interests. This particularly applies to agreements reached by the Armenian authorities with former U.S. President Biden’s administration.
“The new administration has brought a new ideology to U.S. foreign policy,” Arman Boshyan argues. “It is an ideology of technocrats. It implies the need to negotiate with Russia and China. By the way, what happened in Washington during Trump’s meeting with Zelensky indicates the dismantling of the old system and the cancellation of previous rules of the game. And until new rules are established (which is a long process), there will be no serious cooperation between the U.S. and Armenia.”
The expert pointed out that Armenia is trying to balance between various power centers but sometimes makes mistaken decisions. One such decision, according to him, was the adoption of a bill initiating Armenia’s accession process to the EU.
In Boshyan’s view, at a time when the European Union is neither a military nor an intellectual force and is even in opposition to Trump and the U.S., Yerevan’s moves toward Brussels are “highly short-sighted.”
“The EU could be considered part of the Western power bloc when Brussels and Washington were united in their positions on global issues,” the Armenian political analyst argues. “But now that unity has been disrupted, and there is no single stance among EU countries on key issues. Under these conditions, there is no reason to expect any tangible results from the game the Armenian leadership is playing. Moreover, the EU is not eagerly waiting for Armenia, and there have been no proposals from Brussels.”
Boshyan added that Armenia has a bilateral military alliance with Russia and is still under Moscow’s protection. Despite Armenia’s “freezing” of its membership in the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), this protection remains in place.
It is worth recalling that earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also emphasized that Armenia “remains Russia’s natural ally for centuries.”
Thus, due to the Trump administration’s dismantling of the international order established after World War II, the geopolitical conditions for the South Caucasus have also changed. Armenia, taking these changes into account, is trying to discreetly shift its foreign policy direction back towards Moscow. The Kremlin, it seems, believes that amid the destruction of the old world order and the absence of a new one, pressuring Armenia to return to Russia’s political orbit may not even require active efforts.
In this situation, Yerevan, while maintaining close ties with the European Union (which Moscow is not fundamentally against) and formally adhering to a pro-European course, realizes that returning to close relations with Russia is the only viable path forward.
Farhad Mammadov
Translated from haqqin.az
