The outcomes of these two events, according to the American magazine The National Interest, are “the final nail in the coffin for the secessionist ambitions of the Karabakh Armenians and their supporters.”
“The West has thus now unambiguously aligned its position on the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan with support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” says the author of The National Interest think piece. “This is due not only to a renewed realization of the advantages of upholding this cornerstone principle of world order centered on the UN Charter, but also to the recognition that Azerbaijan is the indispensable country for the advancement of the West’s strategic energy and connectivity ambitions in the Caspian Sea basin, and Eurasia more broadly.”
The publication reveals a curious nuance of the talks between President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, held on May 14 in Brussels with the mediation of EU Council President Charles Michel. Reportedly, French President Emmanuel Macron insisted on personally participating in these talks on behalf of the European Union, and Charles Michel had to go to great lengths to cool the French leader’s “mediation fervor” because Azerbaijan opposed Macron’s participation in the talks.
As a result, the Brussels round of Armenia-Azerbaijan top official-level dialogue took place without the French President.
“Without American support, however, the peace process would have likely reverted entirely to Russian mediation,” The National Interest says. “Washington and Brussels seem now to be closely coordinating their efforts: the outcome of the American thread of the process looks to have been seamlessly woven into the European one.”
According to the reputable publication, this concerted Western effort is all the more important since it is not at odds with Russian mediation, which effectively makes the South Caucasus the sole geopolitical theater in which the White House and the Kremlin are currently not in overt opposition, and the interests of Moscow and Washington in this region are not completely incompatible. (How realistic The National Interest’s hypothesis is will become clear on May 19, when Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, will go to Moscow for further Russia-brokered talks.)
The fact that Aliyev met with EU Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič on the same day that Michel hosted peace talks in Brussels suggests that the two main branches of the EU—the Council and the Commission—are also closely coordinating their approaches to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace settlement. Further evidence is the meeting that took place between Jeyhun Bayramov and the head of the EU diplomatic service, Josep Borrell, in Brussels the day before.
After the Brussels talks, Charles Michel stressed that both sides recognize each other’s territorial integrity on the basis of the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration. Moreover, Michel’s statement also explicitly specifies the square kilometer area of both countries. This means Armenia has officially recognized the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast as part of Azerbaijan.
“The Michel statement extinguishes the secessionist hope of the Karabakh Armenians and their supporters,” the article says.
The publication notes that another important breakthrough achieved at the talks in Brussels pertains to the restoration of railway connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. Michel stated that the positions of the sides on this issue were “very close to each other”. This increases the likelihood of the rail link being restored fairly soon.
“What still needs to be finalized, the document says, are some modalities—including customs arrangements—and a concrete timetable on construction,” The National Interest elaborates. “But the text indicates that Aliyev and Pashinyan agreed to instruct their technical negotiating teams to get this done. Presumably, this means that Michel (and perhaps Blinken) will push Armenia not to renege on its commitment to actually achieve a breakthrough on the Zangezur rail link. The document does not indicate what, if any, role will be played by the Russian FSB Border Guard Service in this context, which, after all, is one of the provisions of Article 9 of the November 10, 2020 tripartite statement. In fact, the Michel document does not mention Russia at all.”
Finally, another important point of the Brussels talks is that there was no mention of the “Lachin Corridor” in the text of Charles Michel’s statement.
According to The National Interest, this implies that the topic of the “Lachin Corridor” falls outside of the Brussels-Washington thread of the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks. This is fully consistent with Baku’s official position: any topic pertaining to the Karabakh region will not be a subject of negotiations with Armenia.
Farhad Mammadov
Translated from Haqqin.az
