Meanwhile, tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv in the Middle East have escalated, threatening to spiral into a full-scale war with unpredictable consequences and the potential involvement of other players.
Azerbaijan, located at the crossroads of East and West, North and South, inevitably feels the impact of these conflicts. The rising tensions surrounding Iran, instability in Ukraine, and the shifting balance of power in the world are all influencing both the foreign and domestic policy of Baku. Regional alliances, military-political partnerships, transport corridors, and energy security are all under pressure in this new reality, where the rules of engagement are rapidly being rewritten.
In light of these challenges, prominent military expert Agil Rustamzade shared his perspective in an interview with Minval on the current situation, key risks, and potential scenarios for Azerbaijan and the broader region. He assessed the international environment, outlined potential threats to Azerbaijan, examined developments along its southern and northern borders, and offered insight into the shifting strategic landscape of the South Caucasus amid global confrontation.
What risks does the conflict between Israel and Iran pose for the stability of the Middle East and the South Caucasus? Could it impact Azerbaijan’s security?
The conflict between Israel and Iran poses serious risks not only for the Middle East but also for neighboring regions, including the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan’s geographic proximity to Iran and its strategic role in the region heighten its potential vulnerability. Azerbaijan shares the longest border with Iran among South Caucasus states, and in the event of escalation, it could face both direct and indirect threats — including missile incidents, airspace violations, cyberattacks, and pressure on its infrastructure.
In your opinion, what is the likelihood of third-party involvement — such as the U.S., Turkey, or Gulf states — if the conflict escalates further?
The United States is already indirectly involved: it provides Israel with intelligence, transfers military equipment, and uses missile defense systems like THAAD to repel Iranian attacks. The likelihood of direct U.S. involvement depends on how events unfold, particularly if American assets or allies come under threat.
Turkey, a NATO member, maintains good relations with the U.S., but its relationship with Israel remains complex. At this stage, I don’t see any reason to believe that Ankara would become involved in a military conflict. More likely, it will adopt a cautious stance based on its own national interests. The Gulf states may offer diplomatic and intelligence support to Israel, but open military backing is unlikely without U.S. coordination.
We’ve already touched on the Middle East conflict, but another major military crisis persists — the war between Russia and Ukraine. What stage is this conflict at now? Are there signs of offensive fatigue on either side?
The war between Russia and Ukraine has become a classic war of attrition. Both sides are under strain and limited in terms of resources. The Ukrainian army is focused on stabilizing the front, especially in the Sumy region and the east, where intense battles are ongoing. Russia retains strategic initiative but is not conducting large-scale offensive operations. The dynamics of combat in the coming weeks will depend on the availability of reserves and ammunition, but no major shifts should be expected.
How do you assess the military-political relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia?
Relations remain tense. Following the incident involving an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft, mutual trust has declined. Russia views Azerbaijan’s increasing independence as a challenge to its influence. Azerbaijan aspires to become a regional center of power, which has intensified military-political rivalry. Elements of hybrid pressure are present in the relationship — including information and diplomatic tactics, as well as provocative actions.
Is Russia trying to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus despite a diminished physical presence?
Yes, Russia is striving to retain its position in the South Caucasus, recognizing the region’s strategic importance. However, its resources are stretched due to the war in Ukraine, while competition from Turkey and the West is increasing. Nevertheless, Moscow continues to rely on tools of soft power, intelligence services, and involvement in unresolved conflicts to preserve its influence. The outcome will depend on developments both in the region and on the Ukrainian front.
