To recap, Hikmet Hajiyev, assistant to the president of Azerbaijan, announced at the Shusha Global Media Forum that an official invitation had been extended to Armenia: “We have officially invited Armenia to COP29. Sending this invitation, despite the absence of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries, illustrates Azerbaijan’s goodwill and inclusive approach. Now it is time for the Armenian government to make a decision.”
However, Armenia is unable to make a decision. Yerevan has not provided a clear response. When journalists asked whether the “barbecue prime minister” would attend the summit in Baku, the Information and Public Relations Office replied, “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will address these issues after his vacation, during a press conference in August.” Essentially, wait until the prime minister has had his fill of cycling and boiled corn, and has had a break from his hard work for the long-suffering Armenia.
Theoretically, such a maneuver could be justified, or at least explained: Yerevan might want to “think quietly” about whether to accept the invitation or better to refuse. But this is only theoretically.
It has been known for some time that Azerbaijan will host COP29, and it was foreseeable that an invitation would be extended to the Armenian delegation. Yerevan had time to prepare a response other than “wait until our prime minister returns from vacation and holds a press conference.” So, even if Yerevan decided to “think a bit,” Armenia has already failed the test of state maturity.
The situation is actually worse. Almost simultaneously with the official statements about the prime minister “thinking and deciding,” Luis Moreno Ocampo, former prosecutor of the International Criminal Court and now a paid PR agent for Yerevan, chimed in: “We cannot allow COP29 to be held in Baku while Armenian prisoners are in Baku jails!” He suggested starting a social media campaign. This might earn him fees from the Armenian establishment but won’t secure the release of war criminals. Whether Ocampo and those pulling his strings understand this is another question. The important thing is that this timely report seems to be preparing public opinion for Armenia to refuse participation in COP29 under the slogan “as long as Vardanyan is in prison, our prime minister will not go to Baku!”
This has also created “complications.” Many representatives of the Armenian “chattering class,” linked to the opposition, the “Karabakh clan,” and the ousted occupation junta in Khankendi, have already launched a noisy campaign in Armenian media and Telegram trash bins under the slogan “the Armenian authorities should facilitate the release of our prisoners, but they are doing nothing.” They do not propose concrete scenarios: storming Baku prisons? Too risky and difficult. Taking hostages for exchange? Can’t suggest that out loud. Criticizing the “barbecue” prime minister is effective and safe.
Nevertheless, the prime minister will have to make a decision, whether now, in August, or in November. If Yerevan, or more precisely Pashinyan’s team, truly wants peace and reduced tensions, they should accept the invitation. Unfortunately, everything happening today in Yerevan regarding participation in COP29 suggests preparing public opinion for Armenia to refuse the trip to Baku.
A brief retrospective is needed. Armenian officials have attended international meetings in Baku, including within the CIS, Council of Europe, NATO, etc. The Armenian delegation even attended the European Games.
But today, what is happening in Yerevan is more reminiscent of the fuss around footballer Henrikh Mkhitaryan’s non-attendance at the Chelsea vs. Arsenal match in Baku. Or earlier, the scandalous behavior of Armenia before the 2012 Eurovision in Baku. Initially, Armenia announced its representatives would attend, then demanded special security guarantees, then, having received the guarantees, declared the “atmosphere” in Baku unsuitable and refused to send their participant. Armenia was fined by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) for this. Eurovision is still Eurovision. In the case of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, who also initially demanded security guarantees but eventually did not risk going to Baku, only Mkhitaryan’s reputation, and at most, his football club’s, was at stake.
But with COP29, the stakes are higher. By refusing, Armenia will demonstrate that reducing tensions and normalizing relations with Baku are not among its priorities. By agreeing to attend, Pashinyan will have to overcome the hysteria surrounding the “Armenian prisoners.” In other words, Yerevan has trapped itself in a dilemma it cannot escape.
As a result, even a caricatured figure like “Azerbaijan expert” Tatevik Hayrapetyan is forced to admit: Azerbaijan made a cunning move by sending the invitation, putting Armenia in a difficult position.
Nurani
Translated from Minval.az
