The drone strike against the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, the reaction of President Ilham Aliyev, and the subsequent decisions taken by the Azerbaijani leadership have created noticeable tension within Azerbaijani society. At the same time, an active information campaign has begun to unfold around these events.
Pro-Iranian groups in Europe, along with a number of information platforms linked to Iran, have launched a large-scale campaign targeting Azerbaijan. Familiar narratives are once again being circulated: allegations about supposed Israeli military bases in Azerbaijan, claims of espionage networks, sabotage operations, and similar accusations.
Some commentators in Türkiye have also joined this campaign. Among them are former admirals and generals who now appear as political analysts. Their statements are being widely circulated in the media space and used within the broader information pressure directed at Azerbaijan.
Against this background, particular attention is being paid to the position of official Baku and to the speech delivered by President Ilham Aliyev, in which he outlined several key points.
The President recalled the gestures Azerbaijan had previously made toward Iran. These included his visit to the Iranian embassy in Baku, assistance provided in evacuating Iranian diplomats from Lebanon, and official statements emphasizing that Azerbaijan’s territory and airspace would not be used for actions against Iran.
At the same time, the head of state clearly stated that Azerbaijan has no intention of becoming involved in the war.
However, his speech also contained a sharp reaction to the incident. The President announced the need for preventive steps to ensure the country’s security.
The strong tone of his remarks was widely interpreted as a message directed at those in Iran who make strategic decisions.
Over the past week, Iran has carried out strikes against several Gulf states in response to attacks by the United States and Israel. During that period there were no visible public disagreements within the Iranian leadership regarding these actions. Yet after the firm statement by President Ilham Aliyev, differing voices began to appear in Iran regarding strikes against neighboring countries.
Security concerns are also central to Baku’s assessment of the situation. Azerbaijani security agencies had previously reported threats related to possible terrorist activity. Information about planned attacks in Baku dates back to last autumn. At that time official statements referred to the involvement of a “foreign state,” but it was later explicitly stated that the operation was linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Following the strike on Nakhchivan, the primary objective of Azerbaijan’s leadership became preventing a repetition of such attacks.
Within this framework, several concrete steps were taken. Azerbaijan began withdrawing its diplomatic personnel from Iran, restricted transit across the border, and placed its armed forces on the highest level of combat readiness.
In essence, Baku implemented a set of measures that are often introduced gradually during an escalation, but chose to implement them immediately after the first serious incident.
This approach is widely seen as a demonstration of Azerbaijan’s determination and as a signal to various political groups in Iran that further escalation would be unacceptable.
The steps taken by Azerbaijan are not intended to provoke another strike but rather to minimize the consequences should such a scenario occur.
At the same time, many observers emphasize that the situation surrounding Iran remains extremely complex and depends heavily on internal dynamics within the Iranian leadership. The unpredictability of decision-making and the competition among different factions inside the country create potential risks for neighboring states.
Under these conditions, Azerbaijan’s priority is to remain prepared for possible threats while maintaining its position in the region during a period of heightened instability.
