Let’s recall the chronology. On the night of July 18–19, media outlets published statements from U.S. President Donald Trump: according to him, Azerbaijan and Armenia are closer than ever to signing a peace agreement, which could be finalized very soon. “Armenia, Azerbaijan — we created a miracle there, and it’s close to being achieved,” the U.S. leader noted.
Further clarity came during the 3rd Shusha Global Media Forum. Speaking at the event, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev thanked Donald Trump for his efforts to help Azerbaijan and Armenia ultimately reach an agreement: “Although he (the U.S. President — Ed.) is occupied with more global matters of international security, he is also keeping an eye on the situation in the South Caucasus. In Azerbaijan, of course, we are pleased that he won, for many reasons. And naturally, we wish him success in finishing the job — especially when it comes to draining the Washington swamp — to the very bottom.”
But the most intriguing part was Aliyev’s disclosure of negotiation details — already reported by Minval, but worth revisiting. “We prepared the draft of the peace agreement and sent it to Armenia. They had various comments. For two years, there was no progress. The main reason was that the Armenian side wanted to include the issue of ‘Nagorno-Karabakh’ in the peace agreement. We told them: ‘Nagorno-Karabakh exists in your imagination, not in reality. It is part of Azerbaijan, and matters of our internal politics cannot be part of a peace agreement,’” Aliyev recalled. He emphasized that only after the liberation of territories in September 2023 did Armenia stop insisting on that point — the issue was closed. He continued: “Real negotiations began in January 2024. Work continued on the draft text we had prepared, and it was agreed upon. Armenia didn’t want to include two points. But once President Donald Trump won the election, they agreed to include those two points — changes to Armenia’s Constitution and the dissolution of the Minsk Group. Once these two issues are resolved, the peace agreement can be signed.”
Following this, Donald Trump reposted Aliyev’s speech in Shusha. The Azerbaijani president publicly thanked the U.S. president for the repost.
Now — a look behind the scenes. Aliyev’s remarks about “the Washington swamp” were far from accidental. After assuming office, Trump launched a tough campaign against what might be called the “liberal clique” or the “Washington swamp.” Closing USAID and cutting funding to outlets like Voice of America are among the most visible — though not the only — examples.
In the South Caucasus context, this means the Biden administration’s Armenia-centric approach has finally come to an end. Trump is a pragmatist. For him, tangible U.S. interests come first — not vague ideological mantras like “supporting democracy.” Strictly speaking, even former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had to admit that the previous methods of “promoting democracy” weren’t working. But Trump didn’t just talk — he acted. And specifically, he ended the uncritical support for Yerevan simply because Pashinyan pulled off his 2018 street-party “Dymb-Dymb-Hoo” revolution.
As a result, Armenia realized it had lost Washington’s support. This quickly translated into a shift in its negotiating stance. While that’s not a guarantee Yerevan won’t attempt another twist, it seems increasingly clear that peace will have to come on Azerbaijan’s terms — and this is largely due to the change in U.S. policy.
This not only marks the turning of a page on the “most pro-Armenian administration” of Joe Biden — it opens the door for a full reset in U.S.-Azerbaijan relations. That includes not just the Karabakh issue, but cooperation in energy and security, investments, humanitarian projects, and more. Now that Trump has abandoned the practice of judging other countries’ elections, shut down USAID, and ceased unconditional support for Yerevan, the removal of the most painful friction points in bilateral relations is bound to lead to increased cooperation across other fields.
The key is to keep this process going.
Nurani
Translated from minval.az
