This was not just a diplomatic signal, but the crystallization of a new power architecture in the South Caucasus.
For observers accustomed to traditional models of regional control, it may have seemed that Russia’s role as a nominal guarantor of stability would continue by inertia. However, within the paradigm outlined by Aliyev, Russia has definitively lost its status as a mediator. Not because Baku wanted it so, but because Moscow—as an institution and historical actor—has failed the test of trust.
The president’s blunt remarks that Azerbaijan’s concerns are ignored and that Moscow is not behaving like a neighbor serve as a diagnosis. And not an emotional one—but a systemic one. The previous formula of “allied relations” between the two nations no longer exists. Russia is no longer a party to the resolution process. That’s why the forum in Khankendi can be seen as a strategic act of institutional liberation—from post-imperial guardianship and long-nurtured illusions.
Aliyev’s speech also revealed another critical vector: the United States. The president noted the White House’s involvement—particularly under Donald Trump—in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process. This wasn’t merely a compliment; it was an invitation to a new type of partnership based on pragmatism and a balance of interests, rather than the militaristic neo-colonialism Moscow is used to.
Thus, Washington is increasingly becoming a visible part of the region’s new world order. Those who remain trapped in outdated thinking are doomed to fail. Russia is still stuck in the past, while the U.S., despite its geographic distance, is showing its ability to shape the future.
Still, there should be no illusions: Moscow will not retreat quietly. The hybrid war already underway may intensify—through information attacks, provocations, and the use of proxies. But Azerbaijan now has a clear institutional immune system—full sovereignty, resilience, and maturity—that it has been steadily building over the years.
The key takeaway is this: Baku no longer begs for favors from old empires, nor does it blindly idealize new partners. It is shaping its strategy consciously—as a mature and sovereign actor. And this is the key to understanding the new era. An era in which the rules of the region are no longer set in the Kremlin, but at forums in Khankendi. Azerbaijan has won the war—and whether anyone likes it or not, it now dictates the rules in the South Caucasus. Russia is no longer a player, nor an arbiter, nor a point of reference. Today, it is no one. And it no longer has a name.
Magsud Salimov
Translated from minval.az
