News from Russia, particularly from Yekaterinburg, comes with seemingly promising undertones. According to Kommersant, the case involving the conflict in Yekaterinburg has been transferred to the central office of the Investigative Committee and placed under the supervision of the Prosecutor General’s Office.
The head of the Azerbaijani diaspora, Shahin Shykhlinsky, has been released—he is merely considered a witness. At the same time, the Russian outlet is floating a narrative: following the release of Sputnik Azerbaijan journalists in Baku, the situation may begin to ease.
Tellingly, Russia—Kommersant unlikely to be speaking solely in a personal capacity—seems concerned exclusively about individuals with FSB ranks and Sputnik press credentials, rather than, for example, the “poor IT guys” who were slammed face-first into the pavement by Azerbaijani police and forced to “waddle like ducks” (a standard detainment procedure, for the record). It should also go without saying that Azerbaijan’s laws are not subject to bargaining, and the fate of undercover FSB agents posing as journalists will depend entirely on the severity of their actions before arrest.
Meanwhile, as previously reported by Minval, Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov—widely regarded as a mouthpiece of the Kremlin—unexpectedly cast public doubt on the official version of the events surrounding the deaths of brothers Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov in Yekaterinburg.
He questioned the legality and transparency of the law enforcement actions, saying there are “many unanswered questions.”
The more pressing issue now is whether such measures will truly reduce tensions between the two countries—and if so, to what extent.
And here, things become more complicated. First and foremost, the individuals responsible for the torture and killing of the Safarov brothers must be brought to justice. Transferring the investigation to the central office is no guarantee of accountability. A sobering precedent exists: in the “Novosibirsk case,” a Russian traffic officer fatally shot 19-year-old unarmed Azerbaijani Vakil Abdullayev—and faced zero consequences. A full investigation and the prosecution of those responsible in Yekaterinburg may help ease tensions in the short term between Moscow and Baku.
It’s also clear that all crises eventually come to an end. Azerbaijan has no interest in escalating tensions with neighboring countries, including Russia. Pragmatism has always been the cornerstone of Azerbaijani foreign policy. However, building good-neighborly, constructive, and allied relations is a two-way street. In this regard, a single investigation in Yekaterinburg may not suffice. The hate campaign against the Azerbaijani diaspora continues. Even at the State Duma level, narratives are being shaped portraying markets like Sadovod and Food City as “danger zones”—a rhetoric eerily reminiscent of the campaign that preceded the dismantling of the Cherkizovsky market.
Lastly, a major irritant in bilateral relations remains the Azerbaijani passenger plane that was shot down by Russian air defense near Grozny. It was Moscow’s attempt to sweep the matter under the rug—offering absurd explanations such as a “bird strike” or an “onboard gas canister explosion”—that truly triggered the current crisis in relations. Yekaterinburg was just another flare-up, not the beginning.
In the long term, if Moscow genuinely wants not only to defuse short-term tensions but also to prevent future crises, Russia must abandon its arrogant, imperial tone in dealings with Azerbaijan. It must learn to build relations based on mutual respect, adherence to both domestic and international law, and without trying to “pressure” or “educate” its neighbors.
And perhaps most importantly: yes, the crisis will pass. But events like these never leave bilateral relations unchanged. Russia has seemingly lost its former authority for good. Even those in Azerbaijani society who still harbored some illusions about Russia are rapidly shedding them. And understandably so—illusions in politics are a dangerous thing.
So for now, no one in Baku is throwing their hats in the air or cheering because Moscow has graciously decided to investigate its own security forces. We’re simply watching how the situation unfolds—and the final judgment will be made once the full picture is clear.
Nurani
