The Armenian revanchist camp continues its “show of strength” — and a striking “parade of former leaders.” First, Serzh Sargsyan reappeared in public. A few days ago, it was Robert Kocharyan’s turn. He held a meeting with students and faculty of the “Armenian University,” where he launched a series of accusations against Armenia’s current authorities: they dismantled the army, undermined relations with Russia, and — worst of all in his view — how could Nikol Pashinyan recognize Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity in Prague? Pro-Pashinyan Telegram channels have responded with streams of insults, but none of it sounds particularly convincing.
Now, former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian has come forward with a lengthy article:
“Armenia can no longer tolerate such leadership. Pashinyan’s time in power is not just a consequence of crisis — it is the very essence of it. His presence narrows the chances for recovery, complicates international relations, and hinders democratic and national restoration. His removal will not solve all problems. But it is the necessary first step toward restoring Armenia’s dignity, authority, and strategic direction.”
And now, a former “field commander” — more accurately, a terrorist and war criminal — Vitaly Balasanyan, has written a lengthy letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin. He listed real and imaginary “merits” of Armenians, particularly Karabakh Armenians, in defeating Nazi Germany, and accused Azerbaijan of demolishing monuments to Baghramyan, Stepanian, etc. — a crime under Russian law (though he didn’t explain how Russian legislation should apply on Azerbaijani territory). Then came the main message. Lamenting that “today, the Armenians of Karabakh are deprived of their historical homeland due to a number of circumstances,” he wrote that this “unjust process” could be reversed by the Russian people and state. Referring to the Gulistan and Turkmenchay treaties, Balasanyan begged Putin:
“We hope that, with your mediation, the Armenians of Karabakh — descendants of the people who won the Great Patriotic War — will return to their historical homeland, and that urgent steps will be taken to preserve the cultural and historical heritage created over millennia.”
Translation: come and reconquer Karabakh for us. We’ve lost it all ourselves.
All this is closely tied to Armenia’s internal political dynamics. Nikol Pashinyan’s position is increasingly shaky. His former popularity on the streets has mostly faded. The tangible outcomes of his seven-year rule include two lost wars, “lost territories” — Azerbaijani lands that Armenians had grown used to claiming as their own — soured relations with Russia, and rather meager results in dealings with the West. At his student meeting, Kocharyan cited revealing figures:
“During my time, trade with the EU made up 22–24% of foreign trade. Now it’s only 6–7%. Trade with Russia was 25% back then, and now it’s 55–60%.”
Moreover, Pashinyan’s push to align more closely with the West has clearly irritated Moscow, where a replacement for the “barbecue prime minister” is likely being sought.
But that’s just the rhetorical backdrop. The more dangerous development is the ongoing low-intensity “skirmishing” along the de facto border with Azerbaijan, also instigated by revanchist circles. Recently, the “Yerkrapah” terrorist group conducted another rotation. The notorious VoMa group also remains active. And this creates a fundamentally different situation.
It is unlikely that figures like Balasanyan or Kocharyan, even if they return to power, would launch a full-scale war. Armenia suffered a devastating defeat — both in the 44-day war and during the rapid anti-terror raids in September 2023. It also lost a series of border skirmishes — even at a time when Armenian leaders were making plans to reoccupy areas like the Kalbajar region, convinced of their superiority in that specific direction. Armenia’s military potential has been severely eroded. Restoring it even to September 2020 levels requires time and funding — both of which are lacking. Neither arms begging in France nor purchases from India will plug the $5 billion hole any time soon. But armed provocations and terrorist incursions may occur — as shown in February last year. And they don’t necessarily require a political victory at home to happen.
This fundamentally changes the calculus. Azerbaijan has always viewed these individuals as terrorists. As long as they stayed quiet in Yerevan and avoided the spotlight, Baku showed restraint. But now that these war criminals and terrorists are again calling for war and engaging in provocative activity along the border, Azerbaijan effectively holds a carte blanche. Most importantly, our country reserves the right to take preemptive action to neutralize terrorist threats.
This is not the kind of situation where the global expert community needs to clutch its heart, faint, or reach for calming drops. Just look at how firmly Israel dealt with the Hezbollah terrorist group in Lebanon and continues to deal with Hamas in Gaza. The U.S. has also carried out cross-border operations against international terrorist groups — from targeting Hezbollah after the Beirut embassy and barracks bombings in the 1980s to current operations against Yemen’s Houthis. Azerbaijan’s own response to threats — even symbolic or “comedic” ones — was clear in September 2023 during its anti-terror operations, and again in February 2024, when sniper fire at Azerbaijani border guards led to the destruction of a post inside Armenia. It didn’t matter whether the post belonged to regular troops, Armenian border guards, or Yerkrapah.
So, those planning a new war should start thinking about their own safety. Because if things get truly hot, no one will come to their rescue — not the U.S., not Europe, and not Russia. And most importantly, Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces are not standing still. The President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly warned: we will not allow Armenian fascism to rise again and threaten our country. And as past events show, Armenian revanchists would be wise to heed warnings from Baku in time.
