The growing tension between Turkey and Israel over Syria “harms regional stability and Baku’s interests,” declared the President of Azerbaijan. At a meeting held in Baku last Wednesday, President Ilham Aliyev emphasized the important role of his country as a mediator between the sides and expressed hope that, just like during the previous reconciliation process in 2022, Azerbaijan will once again succeed in facilitating the normalization of relations between Ankara and Jerusalem. The ongoing negotiations are taking place amid developments in Syria and the region as a whole, as well as the rapprochement between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Abu Muhammad al-Julani, head of the Damascus government, and are accompanied by a high level of tension.
Turkey’s control over strategic bases in Syria, the buildup of Turkish military presence around Palmyra, and the restoration of air defense systems and missile batteries in southern Syria pose a threat to Israel’s security. Moreover, any damage to Israel’s air superiority and restrictions on its freedom of operations in Syria are considered a “red line,” increasing the likelihood of a military confrontation with Turkey.
There is no doubt that diplomatic efforts mediated by Azerbaijan — a regional energy power and a strategic, military, and diplomatic partner of both Turkey and Israel — are critically important amid the escalation of the war in Gaza. Establishing mechanisms for dialogue and cooperation, with the support of the Trump administration and other actors, could prevent an escalation that would impact bilateral relations and the broader dynamics of the Middle East. The success of these efforts and their geopolitical consequences are expected to strengthen the security of Jerusalem, Ankara, and Baku, and enhance regional stability. This involves deepening bilateral and multilateral cooperation in security, economy, and energy, consolidating Azerbaijan’s status as an international mediator, and reinforcing its strategic influence in Eurasia, the Caspian region, and the South Caucasus.
It is no coincidence that the largest and strongest Muslim-Shia country in the South Caucasus (with a GDP of $75.649 billion in 2024) is investing massive efforts into mediating between Ankara and Jerusalem. Azerbaijan is a strategic partner of the United States and a close and vital ally of Israel in this region. Their trade and defense relations have been flourishing since 1992: for instance, Azerbaijan’s exports to Israel reached $898 million in 2021, compared to $801.6 million to all Arab countries combined. Azerbaijan also shares deep historical and cultural ties with Turkey (their trade volume reached $6.13 billion in 2024).
Additionally, Azerbaijan serves as an important trade route for Russia and a crucial element in the regional security strategy. Its geopolitical location as a bridge between the Caspian and Black Seas, its proximity to Iran and Russia, its complex relations with the United States, critical dependence on oil and gas exports to Europe (which account for 60% of its budget), and its status as Israel’s strategic energy supplier all enhance Azerbaijan’s significance. Azerbaijan is also expanding its activities in the Mediterranean energy sector: its national oil and gas company, SOCAR, acquired a 10% stake in the Tamar gas field.
“Pure Realpolitik”
Nevertheless, despite its close ties with Ankara and the hostile stance of Turkey towards Israel, Baku skillfully navigates between numerous players and conflicting interests, maintaining a balanced foreign policy with many Arab and Gulf states. Azerbaijan supports the Palestinian cause and the concept of “two states,” yet does not submit to Erdoğan’s dictates.
Moreover, Azerbaijan is the only Muslim country in the world that simultaneously supports Israel in its struggle against Iran and its proxy networks, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. By adhering to a pragmatic line and maintaining its strategic autonomy, Azerbaijan leverages its strong assets and solid reputation, practicing a clear Realpolitik approach. Economic and energy ties between Azerbaijan and Israel continue to strengthen, and strategic cooperation in security, science, and agriculture is expanding. Despite Turkey’s trade embargo, Israel remains Azerbaijan’s sixth-largest export destination.
The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline continues to supply a significant part of Israel’s crude oil needs. In 2024, oil imports from Azerbaijan to Israel increased by 55%, reaching 1.173 million tons worth approximately $713 million. The total volume of Azerbaijani energy exports to Israel reached $1.7 billion. At the same time, Azerbaijan has invested $7 billion in building petrochemical facilities in Turkey.
Azerbaijan is also Israel’s second-largest defense customer: according to data published in “Globes,” Israel supplies about 70% of Azerbaijan’s weaponry, including drones, radars, and advanced defense and communication systems. Between 2018 and 2022, more than 9% of Israel’s total defense exports were directed to Azerbaijan.
Despite demographic and cultural ties with Iran (Azerbaijan has the second-largest Shia population in the world after Iran) and bilateral trade worth $580 million in 2024, tension between Baku and Tehran remains high. A key reason is Iran’s support for Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its hostile policy towards Israel. Earlier this year, Azerbaijan thwarted an Iranian attempt to target a Jewish community leader on its territory.
A systemic geopolitical analysis shows that Azerbaijan, maneuvering between Jerusalem and Ankara, faces immense pressures and conflicting interests. Although it cannot prevent conflicts between Turkey and Israel or resolve deeply rooted political issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Azerbaijan seeks to use the situation to strengthen its position, expand its trade relations, and diversify its economy.
Baku needs to deepen its energy ties with Turkey, receive military and technological support from Israel, and strengthen relations with the United States while striving to join the “Abraham Accords.” Given the growing concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and the Trump administration’s efforts to strengthen regional alliances to contain Iran while easing Washington’s financial burden, Azerbaijan can play a critical role.
As a country in a key strategic position and seeking to enhance its international standing, Azerbaijan is capable of flexibly adapting to circumstances and balancing between Turkey and Israel. If it so wishes, it can transcend its role as merely an energy exporter and emerge as a central geopolitical player in Eurasia and the South Caucasus, influencing broader processes throughout the Middle East.
Dr. Anat Hochberg-Marom
Translated from maariv.co.il
