The prospects of a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan could unite a number of countries that are not usually on the same side of issues. This is because it appears that the US, Iran, Russia, Turkey, and many others in the region would like to see a deal between Baku and Yerevan.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran welcomes the conclusion of a draft agreement between the Republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan, according to the Iranian state media on March 26.
On March 14, the US State Department under Secretary of State Marco Rubio put out a statement saying, “The United States commends Armenia and Azerbaijan for concluding negotiations on a historic peace treaty. This is an opportunity for both countries to turn the page on a decades-old conflict in line with President Trump’s vision for a more peaceful world. Now is the time to commit to peace, sign and ratify the treaty, and usher in a new era of prosperity for the people of the South Caucasus.”
Rubio met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during Fidan’s trip to Washington on March 25. Rubio requested “support for peace in Ukraine and the South Caucasus,” Rubio’s office said.
Turkey’s TRT state media reported that “US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the agreement on a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, underscoring the importance of lasting security and prosperity in the region, according to the State Department.”
The TRT report went on to note, “the Secretary welcomed the agreement on a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and underlined the importance of a lasting peace to break the cycle of regional conflict and bring security and prosperity to the South Caucasus,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a statement following a phone call between Rubio and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Tuesday.
Media in Azerbaijan also noted that the Turkish foreign minister had held talks in Washington about the deal.
In mid-March, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had informed Russian President Vladimir Putin about the completion of talks on a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, Russian state media said at the time. According to other reports, Pope Francis has also welcomed the chance for peace between the countries.
As the Turkish top diplomat was in Washington, Iran’s top diplomat met with Pashinyan in Yerevan on March 25. “Prime Minister Pashinyan expressed his satisfaction with the progress in cooperation between Armenia and Iran,” Iran’s IRNA noted.
“He also described the relations between the two countries as being based on the mutual and natural interests of the two nations, which have been established over many years. He said ties were now moving toward increased consolidation.”
Iranian support for Armenia
Meanwhile, he also discussed the importance of peace in the South Caucasus region and discussed Iran’s role in the region.
“Foreign Minister Araghchi said for his part that the growing Iran-Armenia relationship had mutual benefits for both countries and guaranteed peace and stability in the region. He emphasized that Iran and Armenia should, by taking advantage of their civilizational, cultural, and historical ties, as well as people-to-people relations, strive to promote relations and cooperation in all fields, especially in the economy, trade, tourism, transit, transportation, and energy fields,” IRNA noted.
“Araghchi also said that security and stability in the South Caucasus was of strategic value to Iran.” Araghchi also held a meeting with his Armenian counterpart, Ararat Mirzoyan.
Iran has welcomed the potential deal with Baku. While Iran has close ties with Yerevan, it also knows Baku is the stronger of the two countries. Azerbaijan defeated Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, and 50,000 Armenians fled the disputed area.
Armenia has had several defeats in recent years. Baku has invested its money from energy resources wisely in new military technology. Baku also has strong ties with Israel and Turkey. Iran wants to work with both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
This is especially true for Iran’s interest in a north-south trade corridor linking Baku to the Persian Gulf and Central Asia. Iran believes a peace deal will lead to economic development in the region. This will help Iran as well.
IRNA noted that “Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region for nearly four decades. In 2020, Azerbaijan launched a military operation that ultimately resulted in taking about a third of Nagorno-Karabakh. Almost all of the nearly 100,000 Armenians in the region fled to Armenia as refugees.” Iran backs the territorial integrity of countries, Iran says.
The potential deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan could help pave the way for more deals. US President Donald Trump has tapped envoy Steve Witkoff to play a role in many of these discussions, including talks in Moscow, the Gaza ceasefire deal that took place in January, and potential talks with Iran and peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Witkoff was in Baku in mid-March. Many things are in the air, but the more peace deals the US can back, the more Trump’s administration can see this as a win and a key part of its doctrine. For instance, Russia and Ukraine now seemed headed for a potential Black Sea deal and energy truce. This could build confidence toward a larger ceasefire.
Seth J. Frantzman
