An interview with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev on January 7, 2025, with local TV channels marked a significant moment in defining the country’s key foreign policy priorities for the coming years. The president elaborated on strategic objectives and challenges facing the nation.
In an exclusive interview with Vesti.az, Farid Shafiyev, head of the Center for the Analysis of International Relations, shared his perspective on the president’s outlined goals and their implications for Azerbaijan’s future.
How would you evaluate the president’s interview overall?
Shafiyev: It was a programmatic speech by Ilham Aliyev outlining Azerbaijan’s priorities. He provided an analysis of global and regional developments over the past five years, especially in light of the outcomes of the Second Karabakh War. The president also defined Azerbaijan’s priorities for the near future.
Armenian experts and media perceive the president’s statements as a potential escalation in Zangezur. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan even claimed it legitimizes aggression against Armenia. How realistic is the threat of a new war?
Shafiyev: Armenians interpret things as they wish. However, Ilham Aliyev explicitly stated, “We pose no threat to Armenia.” On the contrary, Armenia, which occupied and devastated our territories, has posed threats to Azerbaijan. The president also emphasized that, for Azerbaijan, the conflict is over and envisions the South Caucasus as a region of cooperation.
Regarding Armenia’s military capabilities and perceived threats to Azerbaijan, the concerns stem from Armenia’s past as an occupying power. However, when it comes to the Zangezur Corridor, Azerbaijan is not considering military solutions but rather international tools, including diplomacy, legal mechanisms, and economic leverage, to achieve its goals.
President Aliyev stressed that Azerbaijan does not question Armenia’s territorial integrity or sovereignty. As for Western Azerbaijan, he noted that Azerbaijanis should return to their homes but did not demand territorial concessions. His emphasis was on securing safety guarantees and nothing more.
All this talk of escalation is merely a media campaign initiated by Armenians since 2023 to garner military and diplomatic support from Western countries.
So, there is no scenario where Azerbaijan takes military control of the Zangezur Corridor?
Shafiyev: Absolutely not.
The president made notable remarks about Azerbaijan-Iran relations. The next day, Iran’s security secretary visited Baku. How do you view the prospects of cooperation between the two countries?
Shafiyev: The situation remains unclear. In his interview, President Aliyev was cautious about making predictions. The Iranian security secretary’s visit was pre-scheduled.
Iran seems to believe it benefits from deceiving its neighbors and partners. Such behavior may work short-term, like a vendor cheating a buyer at the market, but it damages long-term trust. By repeatedly betraying Azerbaijan, Tehran harms itself; relations do not improve. Azerbaijan, as a sovereign state, is economically and militarily self-reliant. Good neighborly relations are always mutually beneficial.
However, Iran continues to exhibit political shortsightedness. Its failures in the Middle East, setbacks in Syria and Lebanon, and precarious positions in Iraq and Yemen demonstrate the consequences of this approach. Iran needs to draw lessons from these outcomes.
President Aliyev mentioned the potential to elevate Azerbaijan-US relations to a strategic level, which appears to be a message to the new US President, Donald Trump. Do you think the US is ready for such cooperation, and how might Iran and Russia react?
Shafiyev: Time will tell. Our policy is not hostage to relations with other states. The president’s primary aim is to ensure Azerbaijan’s independence in decision-making, irrespective of external pressures. While we consider our neighbors’ concerns, they must be reasonable. This is why we remain a member of the Non-Aligned Movement.
As for US relations, we have sent our message, but whether they reach a strategic level is uncertain. The US political system, regardless of the president, is constrained by Congress, where the Armenian lobby and the so-called “deep state” are influential. Even with positive ties to the State Department, challenges persist.
Though Trump has expressed intentions to change US policies, his actions may be limited. For instance, while he advocated withdrawing from Syria, the US military presence there increased to 3,000 troops. Institutional constraints in the US are a reality we must consider.
The EU’s Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Magdalena Grono, also recently visited Azerbaijan. How do you foresee Azerbaijan-EU relations evolving, especially with the rise of right-wing forces in Europe?
Shafiyev: Right-wing forces have varying views on Azerbaijan. Their rise in Eastern Europe or Italy is favorable for us, but in France, it raises doubts. Ultra-right and ultra-left factions in Europe have historically supported Armenia. Right-wing conservatives frame the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as a Christian-Muslim clash, while leftists see it as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.
It is evident that the EU’s mission in Armenia will be extended, leaving little room for optimism in Azerbaijan-EU relations.
President Aliyev indicated that France attempted to establish contact with Azerbaijan through unofficial channels, but Baku insists on direct talks. Is a stabilization of relations possible soon?
Shafiyev: I doubt it. Much of the current strain in Azerbaijan-France relations stems from Emmanuel Macron’s initiatives. As long as he remains in power, significant improvements seem unlikely.
