A key focus in oil transportation is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan route, where Kazakhstan plans to boost supplies from the current 1.5 million tons to 20 million tons annually. This development aligns with the broader strategy to expand the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, a vital corridor for delivering energy resources to global markets. Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev emphasized the mutual interest of both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in increasing the capacity and efficiency of this route.
Kazakhstan’s ambitious production targets reflect its robust plans for the energy sector. By 2026, the country expects to exceed 100 million tons of annual oil production, supported by large-scale projects with a combined investment of approximately $17 billion. These projects will account for 70% of total oil production. Among them, the Kalamkas-Khazar field is projected to achieve peak output of 4 million tons annually by 2029, with $6.6 billion allocated for its development. Additionally, $5 billion will be invested in geological exploration by 2030 to secure reserve growth and an additional 11 million tons of oil production by 2040.
Simultaneously, Kazakhstan is prioritizing the domestic petroleum market. The country aims to fully meet internal demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel by 2035 while exporting surplus volumes. To achieve this, extensive modernization of oil refineries is underway. The Shymkent refinery’s capacity will double from 6 to 12 million tons by 2030. The Pavlodar refinery will implement technologies to produce 500,000 tons of winter-grade diesel and increase processing to 6 million tons by 2026. At the Atyrau refinery, secondary processing capacities will rise from 5.5 to 6.7 million tons by 2028, increasing the share of light petroleum products from 66% to 77%.
The construction of a new refinery is another cornerstone of Kazakhstan’s energy strategy. Design work is scheduled to begin by 2030, with operations expected to commence by 2032. This facility, with a capacity of 10 million tons annually, will not only fulfill domestic fuel needs but also support exports to fast-growing markets in Central, South, and Southwest Asia. This development is particularly critical given the anticipated domestic demand growth and potential fuel shortages projected by 2036.
Kazakhstan’s oil exports remain a critical economic pillar. In 2024, the country plans to export 68.8 million tons of oil, representing 78% of the anticipated production of 88.4 million tons. Key export channels include the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (55.4 million tons), the Atyrau-Samara route (8.6 million tons), the port of Aktau (3.6 million tons), and rail transport (0.05 million tons). Furthermore, Kazakhstan is exploring the potential of the Baku-Supsa pipeline, which has a capacity of 5 million tons annually and could handle up to 3 million tons of Kazakh oil.
Despite these ambitious initiatives, Kazakhstan faces several challenges. One major issue is the imbalance between production and reserve growth. In recent years, annual reserve growth has averaged 73 million tons, while production has reached 80 million tons, creating a gap that needs to be addressed. To tackle this, the government plans to modernize legislation to attract private investment in geological exploration.
Another challenge is the aging of many oil fields, which are in the late stages of development. Addressing this requires adopting advanced technologies and introducing fiscal incentives to sustain production. These measures are expected to yield an additional 40 million tons of oil by 2045. Moreover, Kazakhstan is committed to reducing its reliance on hydrocarbons by developing strategies for transitioning to carbon neutrality.
Over the first ten months of the current year, Kazakhstan processed 15.1 million tons of crude oil, producing 11.1 million tons of petroleum products. In 2024, oil processing is projected to rise to 17.9 million tons, eventually reaching 28 million tons by 2032. By that time, the production of petroleum products is expected to grow to 23.7 million tons, ensuring robust export potential.
Kazakhstan’s integrated approach to oil production, refining, and export positions the country as a key player in the global energy market. By balancing internal needs, international obligations, and long-term sustainability goals, Kazakhstan is poised to solidify its role as a leading energy exporter while addressing domestic and global challenges.
