At the first meeting of the new parliament, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev delivered a truly programmatic speech. The head of state touched on various topics, including the risks and challenges facing the country. One of the main threats he identified was Armenian revanchism.
As the head of state pointed out, the number one task is to strengthen the country’s military power: “Although the Second Karabakh War and the anti-terrorist operation are behind us, global developments, the emergence of new conflict hotspots, wars, and escalating tensions around us, as well as revanchist tendencies in Armenia, compel us to constantly pay attention to this sphere.” According to Aliyev, revanchist forces are rising in Armenia, and this is not limited to marginal political elements—today’s Armenian authorities are also driven by similar thoughts and dreams. The head of state emphasized that they are unwilling to accept the outcomes of the Second Karabakh War and the anti-terrorist operation. He further added, “Although they say this in words, their actions, policies, and steps paint an entirely different picture. This is evidenced by the formal preservation of the Minsk Group, which has no functional significance to this day.”
Most importantly, the president warned that Azerbaijan must be prepared for surprises, as external circles, unable to digest Azerbaijan’s victory, are devising new plans against the country: “This is also the goal of smear campaigns—defamatory and slanderous campaigns. To keep this issue on the agenda and live in hope that, should Azerbaijan stumble or weaken at some point, they can once again begin their dirty actions against us. So, we must be aware of this. The Azerbaijani authorities know this, and the public must also be aware. Therefore, we cannot relax.” It should be added that Armenia has always been ready to act as a tool of foreign policy—if in the past Yerevan served as Russia’s outpost, today it is France or someone else.
This means that Armenian revanchism remains a direct and obvious threat to peace and stability throughout the region. Moreover, the president of Azerbaijan directly accused the current government of Armenia of pursuing a revanchist policy and openly indicated that seemingly constructive statements from Nikol Pashinyan and his team should not be trusted. The words coming from Yerevan are too far removed from their actions.
Aliyev also essentially accused Armenia of derailing the preparation of a peace treaty: “Since we sent our first draft to Armenia, there have been ten exchanges of comments. After several months, we naturally expected that Armenia would provide its comments more quickly and efficiently. But we see the opposite happening. We had to wait 70 days before we received their latest version. All unresolved provisions were excluded from their version of the peace agreement. Such a primitive and inadequate step, to be honest, was unexpected.”
Let’s break it down point by point. As Aliyev’s statements suggest, Yerevan’s latest attempt at a “double game with an Armenian twist” is once again failing. In Baku, Yerevan’s intentions, along with those of its patrons, have been exposed. It is even more understandable why Yerevan, which initially delayed work on the peace agreement in every possible way, is now suddenly rushing Baku and capriciously demanding the signing of a peace agreement without key and fundamental provisions. This is Yerevan’s old trick: to impose an agreement on Baku that would tie Azerbaijan’s hands, while Armenia retains “room” to make territorial claims against Azerbaijan and, with the support of old and new patrons, prepares for another “new war for new territories.”
However, Yerevan’s deception was uncovered almost immediately in Baku. Azerbaijan has clearly and unequivocally stated at all levels: first, the country will not sign a “truncated” peace agreement. Secondly, no peace agreement will be signed as long as Armenia keeps its constitutional claims to Karabakh. At best, the peace agreement will be blocked by the Constitutional Court. At worst, Yerevan will claim that Azerbaijan has agreed to recognize Karabakh as part of Armenia. When this scenario failed, Yerevan apparently moved to “Plan B,” focusing on the Karabakh Armenians, or more precisely, on the “endless lament over the myth of ‘ethnic cleansing’ in Karabakh.”
It seems that Yerevan has not abandoned its plans for the re-occupation of Azerbaijani territories, this time under the slogan of the “safe return of Karabakh Armenians.” And not only Karabakh Armenians, by the way: on the eve of the 44-day war, Armenian experts discussed deploying peacekeepers to major Azerbaijani cities to “protect returning Armenian refugees.” In Yerevan’s plans, peacekeepers would have stood somewhere near the Zorge Monument in Baku. These plans certainly evoke a sense of déjà vu. In much the same way, amid cries of “Armenian genocide,” Armenian circles sought to detach six eastern Anatolian vilayets from Turkey. The lamentations have lasted for about 100 years, with zero results, aside from the pockets of lobbyists being filled, but Yerevan decided to try again, this time against Azerbaijan.
However, they did not account for the fact that the Azerbaijan on the map is no longer the Azerbaijan of the late eighties and early nineties. In Baku, they are now “playing ahead of the game.” That is why President Ilham Aliyev spoke at the first session of the new parliament about the importance of strengthening military power and developing Azerbaijan’s defense industry. Our country will be able to defend itself, and we are ready for any scenario.
So, Armenia would do well not to test what a second attempt at revanchism would mean for them.
Nurani
Translated from minval.az
