1. Depletion rate and COP29
Covering an area of 371,000 km2, 14,000 km2 more than Germany, global warming and human activity could lead to the disappearance of around 93,000 km2 by the end of the century, almost 25%, if current depletion levels continue. This would result in water levels decreasing by 9 to 18 metres over the next decades.
“Estimates suggest that the northern portion of the Caspian Sea, where water depths are less than 5 metres, could disappear within 75 years if the water level continues to decrease at a rate of 7 cm per year. This poses a significant threat to fragile ecosystems and could severely impact the region’s climate and local economy”, Axel Goethals, CEO of the European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS), said at a conference on the importance of holding COP29 in Baku in the context of the depleting water levels of the Caspian Sea, held in Brussels on 11 September.
The location of this year’s COP underscores the critical intersection of environmental, economic and geopolitical challenges facing the Greater Caspian Region.
Camilla Brückner, Director, UNDP Office Brussels
Amid the climate conference taking place in the Azerbaijan capital of Baku in November, two days will be themed on issues related to water scarcity, making the Caspian Sea will be a focal point of discussion: 19 November – Food, Agriculture and Water, and 21 November – Nature and Biodiversity, Indigenous People, Gender Equality, and Oceans and Coastal Zones.
“The World Resources Institute ranks Azerbaijan as number 18 among countries projected to face severe drought by 2040, and we are already in 2024. This crisis highlights the urgent need for action and that is what makes COP29 a crucial platform to address such challenges, not just in Azerbaijan, but globally, or at least regionally around the area of the Caspian Sea”, H.E. Vaqif Sadiqov, Ambassador of Azerbaijan to Belgium and the EU said.
2. Contributing factors
Fed by 130 rivers, with almost 80% of its freshwater intake coming from the Volga, one of the developments leading to accelerated water level depletion in the Caspian Sea is the building of dams and reservoirs in its basin. The longest river in Europe, the Volga has 9 dams just within the Caspian Sea basin, accounting for 75% of the total discharge into the sea, with a combined reservoir capacity of 223 km3, according to a EIAS policy brief.
Increased air temperatures attributed to global warming have also contributed to a higher evaporation rate, which is that much more exacerbated by intensified winds carrying air moisture eastward. Moreover, faced with climate change and water scarcity, neighbouring countries are increasingly appealing to desalination techniques to meet their water needs, further reducing the sea’s levels.
“Over the past 25 years, the water level has dropped by nearly 2 metres, causing the shoreline to recede by hundreds of metres”, said H.E. Sapar Palvanov, Ambassador of Turkmenitan to Belgium and the EU. “According to the Caspian Sea Hydrometeorology and Coordinating Committee, the rate of sea level decline increased in 2022 compared to 2021. This indicator is about 20 centimetres in one year, and forecasts for this year predict a further decline in the sea level due to the expected reduced waterfall.”
3. Impact
“The fluctuations in the water levels of the Caspian Sea are a natural phenomenon that has occurred for thousands of years, so yes, recent declines are part of a broader pattern, but one that is now also clearly influenced by human activity in new and problematic ways”, explained UNDP Brussels Office Director Camilla Brückner. “Current declines threaten biodiversity, it disrupts local economies that depend on fishing and tourism and thereby poses risks to the livelihoods of millions of people.”
For the 5 states situated around this water basin, the future of the Caspian Sea is of great importance in all spheres – geopolitical, energy, economic and environmental.
H.E. Vaqif Sadiqov, Ambassador of Azerbaijan to Belgium and the EU
Having been isolated for millions of years, the Caspian Sea has developed into a unique natural reservoir rich in biological resources. It hosts over endemic 400 species, among which the rare freshwater seal and Caspian sturgeon, being the world’s largest spawning ground for the prised fish. Additionally, it is home to more than 100 species of wetland birds that us the area for nesting and migration. All of these are threatened by the sea’s dwindling water levels.
Besides the environmental and local economic impacts, a drying Caspian Sea poses a significant threat to world trading, as a key section of the Middle Corridor. Also called the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), the Middle Corridor is a multilateral institutional development linking the containerized rail freight transport networks of China and the EU. The route starts from Southeast Asia and China, runs through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye before moving forward in Europe, depending on the destination. The initiative started in 2013 but has gained a lot more attention since the war in Ukraine started, as it became the alternative connecting route from Asia to Europe, bypassing Russia.
Besides making the northern part of the sea not viable for water transport if it disappears over the next decades, the lowering levels of the Caspian Sea also threaten freight transport on its entire surface, by forcing freight vessels to reduce in size. Smaller sizes will mean more vessels will be needed to support trading volumes, which will, in turn, worsen port congestion, ultimately affecting the economic viability of the Middle Corridor.
Dana Stefan
