Interestingly, these deliveries took place around the same time that General Mohsen Rezaee, currently serving as the Secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council, made the following statement: “The behavior of the Russian statesman is unacceptable and clearly contradicts his declaration of friendship with Iran. These ambiguities must be resolved.”
Rezaee’s comment referred to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement that Armenia is sabotaging the trilateral agreement on the Zangezur Corridor. A political scandal immediately erupted in Iran, with critics accusing the government of being “too soft” on Russia’s actions, which, in the view of Iranian politicians, are damaging to Iran’s national interests.
Some even claimed that the Iranian-Russian rapprochement is coming to an end. However, such declarations are often made by analysts whenever prominent officials issue bold statements on current issues. A few questions reveal a more nuanced picture.
Is the Zangezur Corridor really the most pressing issue for Iran’s new cabinet and leadership, as it might seem? Is it so significant that it could lead to a serious cooling of Tehran-Moscow relations?
Not at all. Iran currently faces more pressing challenges elsewhere, from Iraq to Pakistan, from the hills of Lebanon to the sands of Yemen, to willingly create another “flashpoint” without having the resources to resolve emerging contradictions.
And that’s just on the external front. Domestically, the interests of Iranian elites are focused on balancing reformists and conservatives, a balance that was seriously disrupted in the wake of recent presidential elections. In other words, they are preoccupied with dividing spheres of influence among reformists, conservatives, and the “military party,” referring to members of the IRGC.
This is a complicated task that requires significant time and effort. The “Zangezur question” is not an issue that Iranian elites are likely to stubbornly push, making rash decisions with unpredictable consequences.
Yes, the Zangezur Corridor is a sensitive topic for Tehran, but not right now. So the second question arises: why spark this scandal at this moment? To answer that, we must understand the true intended audience for this uproar.
In fact, that audience is not Moscow. The primary recipient of this message is Washington, targeting both its Democratic and Republican administrations, depending on how the elections play out. Tehran’s main focus is not Russia but the West. By stirring up a scandal over the Zangezur Corridor, Iran is signaling to the U.S.: “Our relationship with Russia isn’t that important, so take note and consider what you might offer us if we cool off relations with Moscow.”
There is nothing especially surprising or sinister about this. Moscow-Tehran relations throughout both the Putin and Yeltsin eras have been characterized by betrayals and setups on both sides. What’s remarkable is that these “high-level” relations have never resulted in a complete rupture.
Moscow and Tehran have always found a common theme, usually anti-Western, that led them to forget past grievances and rapidly draw closer—until they accumulated new ones. This time will likely be no different: the scandal will die down as if it never happened, and Iranian missiles, shells, and drones will continue flowing to Russia. However, both sides will still be looking for ways to betray the other—at the best price.
Ikram Nur
Translated from haqqin.az
