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Lines of Confrontation
Currently, there are three global lines of confrontation:
The Russia-Ukraine war has entered a new phase. Kyiv has managed to move active military operations onto Russian territory, fulfilling a long-promised “surprise.” While the objective of this new phase of the war (strengthening positions before negotiations) is clear, the possible outcomes are still uncertain. If the Russian armed forces struggle to push the Ukrainian army out of its territory, it is not excluded that the Kremlin may resort to using tactical nuclear weapons.
The Middle Eastern conflict, which has evolved into a struggle between Israel and Iran, is experiencing a new escalation following the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran. The scale of Iran’s expected retaliatory strike against Israel in the coming days is crucial for the future development of events in the region. On the other hand, Tel Aviv is taking active steps against forces supported by Tehran in the region. Having shaken Hamas’s positions in Palestine, Israel is preparing for a similar military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
A close look at both of the above directions reveals that the U.S.-China struggle, which is the main line of global conflict, manifests itself in these contexts as well. Unlike the first two lines, this one remains in the background and is relatively passive. Although Washington and Beijing openly clash in the political and economic spheres, in the military domain, they prefer to resolve their issues through third parties.
The current situation indicates the possibility of new military clashes with significant casualties in the coming months. The red lines have already been crossed, and each side understands that they have only until the end of the year.
What Should Azerbaijan Do?
The escalation of global confrontation does not leave Azerbaijan unaffected. In the context of global escalation, Baku is primarily trying to avoid being caught between the conflicting sides and turning into a battleground. To avoid such a fate, Azerbaijan has two options:
The first is to take a “time-out,” adopting a wait-and-see approach and avoiding active steps. However, given the realities of our time and region, this seems impossible.
The second option is precision diplomacy, which Baku has already proven capable of. We must not forget that Azerbaijan has unique relationships with each of the conflicting sides.
Therefore, by leveraging these relationships, it is important to concentrate the interests of each side on Azerbaijan and ensure that each is invested in Azerbaijan’s security.
To achieve this goal, Baku has two effective tools:
Azerbaijan should maximize the use of the North-South and East-West corridors, as well as projects in oil, gas, and green energy;
To ensure the country’s security, Azerbaijan should not act alone but in collaboration with other states that share similar views and are in a similar situation.
Translated from cssc.az
