The United States is expanding military cooperation with Armenia. Washington is not only placing its representatives in the Armenian Ministry of Defense and conducting regular exercises with the Armenian army but is also delivering arms and ammunition to the country and deploying its military contingent on Armenian territory.
This process is taking place against the backdrop of Yerevan remaining a member of the CSTO, with the country’s borders being guarded by Russian border guards, and the Russian military base continuing its operations in Armenia. Meanwhile, the US declares that Armenia’s membership in the CSTO does not hinder bilateral cooperation in all areas, including the military.
On the other hand, Armenia’s contribution to helping Russia bypass Western sanctions is growing significantly. In just 2021-2023, trade between Armenia and Russia increased by 2.6 times, reaching $7.4 billion. In the first five months of 2024, Armenia’s trade with Russia exceeded the entire trade volume of 2023, amounting to $7.6 billion.
Why then does the US turn a blind eye to Armenia’s existing military-political ties with Russia and its growing economic cooperation? What factors currently make Armenia an exceptional state in Washington’s eyes?
The steps taken by the US in the South Caucasus, as well as in other regions of the world, may seem strange at first glance but are largely directed at the internal election campaign. Following Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race and Harris’s emergence as the top candidate, the current Democratic administration is trying to undermine as many of the Republicans’ “cards” as possible.
For example, one of Trump’s campaign promises is to support Israel more and eliminate its enemies, which he believes will establish peace in the Middle East.
Late last month, after Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran created conditions for the White House to increase its support for Israel, amid a possible response from Iran. Today, the US is sending more military forces to the Middle East to demonstrate its willingness to protect Israel by any means necessary, while also trying to soften the positions of regional countries, including Iran.
Another example is Trump’s promise to immediately end the war in Ukraine. He claims that he can strike a deal with Putin. According to the former president’s plan, if Kyiv does not accept the deal, the US will stop military aid to Ukraine, but if Russia is the one to object, Washington will supply Ukraine with the most advanced weapons to force the Kremlin into peace.
In response to this plan, the current US administration carried out an unprecedented prisoner exchange with Russia, involving European partners in the process, thereby demonstrating its ability to negotiate with Putin. Additionally, while the US previously took a cautious stance on allowing Ukraine to fire even a single shot into Russian territory, it now permits Kyiv to even occupy the opponent’s lands. In this way, the White House has shown its ability to force Moscow into a more favorable peace if necessary.
Considering the above, the US’s current approach to turning a blind eye to Armenia-Russia cooperation and expanding ties with Yerevan can be assessed in this context. Washington has repeatedly stated its goals: the return of Karabakh Armenians, comprehensive support for Armenia, and the achievement of peace. The current US administration sees the path to Yerevan-Baku settlement in this way.
In this situation, Azerbaijan must strengthen its military and diplomatic positions as much as possible and patiently wait for the results of the elections in the US.
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