Whether anyone explained this to Nikol Pashinyan remains a matter of speculation. However, five years ago, on August 5, 2019, Pashinyan made a statement for which his country had to pay a very high price. On that day, the “Pan-Armenian Games” commenced in the then-occupied city of Hankendi (Stepanakert), as Yerevan found no other venue than the occupied territory of Azerbaijan. At the opening ceremony, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared into the microphone: “Artsakh is Armenia, period!” According to Yerevan sources, he was quoting the “field commander” and war criminal Leonid Azgaldyan.
This statement effectively eliminated even the theoretical possibility of negotiations. It dashed hopes that the victor of the “barbecue revolution” would be more prudent and flexible than the Karabakh clan leaders, war criminals Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. However, intermediaries and “world diplomacy” chose to ignore this outrageous statement by Pashinyan, rationalizing that he was new to the premiership, had not yet mastered the art of diplomacy, got carried away, and simply misspoke.
But this was no accident, nor a mere slip of the tongue. The so-called “dove of peace” Pashinyan had already chosen a radical course. The mere relocation of the “Pan-Armenian Games” to occupied Azerbaijani lands was already a challenge to international law. Pashinyan’s new team included well-known “hawks” like David Tonoyan and Vagharshak Harutyunyan. Soon, the occupiers would begin constructing a “parliament” building for the local junta in Shusha and move the “inauguration” ceremony of Arayik Harutyunyan there. Pashinyan would publicly refer to Harutyunyan as “marzpet,” akin to a regional governor in Armenia. His party’s campaign materials featured maps of Armenia that included the occupied Azerbaijani territories. Pashinyan was advancing the annexation of Karabakh step by step.
Pashinyan and others were suffering from “dizziness from success.” With 20% of Azerbaijan’s territory under occupation and no international pressure on Armenia to withdraw and comply with UN Security Council resolutions, Armenia’s army was touted as the “strongest in the region.” Russia regularly supplied Armenia with weapons worth billions.
Thoughtful politicians should have realized by August 2019 that the situation was changing. The April 2016 clashes and the liberation of the Lalatapa height demonstrated that Azerbaijan had a different army. The Qizilqaya-Gunnut operation had taken place. A military solution to the conflict was becoming apparent, narrowing Armenia’s choices to either conceding in negotiations or losing a war.
Pashinyan, however, did not consider retreating in negotiations. He aimed for a “new war for new territories.” On the morning of September 27, 2020, in the spirit of Nzhdeh and his patrons, Armenia launched artillery attacks along the entire front line, preparing for an offensive.
This new wave of aggression quickly faltered. Azerbaijan’s 44-day counteroffensive resulted in the liberation of the Aras Valley, Hadrut, and Shusha, and Armenia’s de facto capitulation on the night of November 10, 2020. The “hangover” from the initial euphoria was harsh.
Unfortunately, the Armenian leadership did not abandon their revanchist illusions. By September 2023, Azerbaijan conducted localized anti-terrorist operations in Karabakh, where the Russian peacekeeping contingent was deployed, and Armenia continued to maintain a 15,000-strong military force with hundreds of tanks, howitzers, and MLRS units in violation of all agreements. The junta was crushed in less than 24 hours and forced to announce its self-dissolution.
On December 21, 2023, the first post-war match between Azerbaijani football teams, MOIK and Qarabağ, took place at the stadium in Hankendi. The first kick was made by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, scoring a symbolic political goal against those who planned to forcibly redraw Azerbaijan’s borders. Addressing the participants and spectators, President Aliyev reminded them that “some people declared on this stadium: ‘Karabakh is Armenia, period.’ We proved to them that Karabakh is Azerbaijan!”
To add, this is forever.
