Although the EU sees Kazakhstan as a very important oil supplier, and a potential exporter of critical minerals, in the mid-term European nations could begin purchasing “green electricity” from the energy-rich Central Asian country.
Being rich in fossil fuels, Kazakhstan gets most of its electricity from coal and natural gas. According to the Kazakh Ministry of Energy, in 2023 the electricity generated by renewable energy sources reached only 5.92% of the total electricity production. So how can a country with relatively low proportions of renewables export “green electricity”?
Kazakhstan has a great potential for solar energy. It is estimated at around 5% of the country’s annual power consumption. More importantly, the Central Asian nation’s steppe geography makes it suitable for wind energy production. In 2023, the volume of electricity generated by wind power plants amounted to 3.8 billion kWh, while experts estimate the potential of wind energy in Kazakhstan at 920 billion kWh per year.
It is, therefore, no surprise that the Kazakh Ministry of Industry and New Technologies selected 10 sites to build large wind power plants. Since Kazakhstan’s climate is favorable for the construction of wind power plants, in the foreseeable future the Kazakh government is expected to significantly develop this sector of renewable energy. As a result, Astana could eventually begin exporting its green electricity to Europe, via Azerbaijan.
But the two nations will first have to lay a high-voltage power transmission line on the Caspian seabed. Kazakhstan’s neighbor Uzbekistan will almost certainly join the project, as Astana, Baku, and Tashkent have recently reached a deal on the strategic green-energy partnership.
Azerbaijan has already started heavily investing in renewables such as wind and solar, and also attracting millions of foreign investments from various countries, from China, through Saudi Arabia, Qatar, to the United Arab Emirates. Uzbekistan, having an ambitious goal to bring the share of renewable energy sources to 18% in total electricity production by the end of the year, has also made significant green energy achievements. The ball is now in Kazakhstan’s court.
Astana plans to increase the share of renewable energy in the country’s energy balance to 15% in 2030, and to 50% in 2050. Also, according to the Doctrine of Carbon Neutrality of Kazakhstan until 2060, all coal-fired power plants in the energy-rich nation will be decommissioned by 2050, while by 2060 the share of renewable and alternative energy sources will reach more than 80% of the total Kazakh energy balance.
But since the EU, amid its “energy divorce” from Russia, aims to ensure alternative energy supplies as soon as possible, it will likely have to find a way to help Kazakhstan develop its renewable sector in the near future. Germany, as the largest EU economy, is already involved in the green hydrogen production in Kazakhstan. Berlin’s idea is to help Astana produce substantial quantities of green hydrogen using electricity generated from renewable sources. Kazakh authorities aim to produce 2 million tons of hydrogen annually starting in 2032, with the export-oriented production beginning in 2030.
In addition to that, Astana seeks to enhance green energy cooperation not only with EU members, but with other actors as well. Kazakhstan already eyes joint green energy projects with China, and it also plans to attract at least $150 billion in foreign direct investment by 2029. It is fair to assume that a significant portion of this investment will be directed towards Kazakh renewables.
Moreover, the Kazakh government plans to hold a nationwide referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant in the country. If the voters give the green light to the construction of the facility, a nuclear plant could serve to meet domestic Kazakh energy needs, freeing up renewable production for export.
By exporting green electricity and green hydrogen to Europe, Kazakhstan can provide a stable and sustainable energy supply, helping the EU meet its climate goals and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Also, from the EU perspective, Kazakhstan’s burgeoning renewable energy sector holds the key to bolstering Europe’s energy security. Strategic partnerships are crucial in this endeavor. The collaboration between Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan is expected to further strengthen the regional green energy network.
Finally, with the development of infrastructure like high-voltage power transmission lines, and potential nuclear energy projects, Kazakhstan could become a vital supplier of green electricity and hydrogen to Europe.
Nikola Mikovic
