“If you don’t yet have a 100 percent alternative, why reject what is already at hand?” This was stated in an interview with the program “Factor of Power” by former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian, addressing Armenian-Russian relations and the orientation towards the West.
“Orientation towards Europe is a bluff; our people are being deceived again. No one in the EU is waiting for us; maybe in 20-30 years this will happen, but those who speak about it today will not live to see it.
We are just lucky that Russia is currently showing great patience towards these authorities. You are part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and to some extent benefit from it. But now you are moving towards Europe, as you have announced. And so, the leading country of the EAEU – Russia sees that Armenia is actively heading towards Europe but still wants to remain here. That is, in 10-20 years, when the moment comes, and it enters the EU, it will leave us, betray us, but all these 20 years will benefit from our advantages. Eventually, Russia might take retaliatory steps. They are doing this for the Armenian people; they do not want to cause any harm, otherwise, the gas price could rise fourfold today, they could impose taxes, they could say: decide, either you stay or you leave. They do not understand this. Open confrontation with Russia cannot have good consequences (for Armenia),” said Oskanian.
According to Oskanian’s forecast, Russia might replace Armenia with Azerbaijan and, through the latter, start solving its problems in this region if the RA leadership continues its political course.
“Russia can replace Armenia with Azerbaijan, forget about us entirely, and solve its strategic problems through Baku. We have already lost the North-South road. Recently I watched three different programs, and Armenia is not on any map. This road goes from India, from Bandar Abbas to Russia and Europe through Azerbaijan, and ours are still talking about some ‘Crossroad of the World.’
We have already lost this road; the East-West road does not exist for us yet, Georgia is conducting a much more complementary policy. Azerbaijan has always been able to maintain balance, now it can deepen its relations with Russia even more in spite of us and replace us, Georgia will bring its relations with Russia to a normal state, and we will be in complete isolation. This is where the policy of these authorities leads, and this threat stands before us. Serious changes are taking place in the region, there may be a sharp shift in roles. In the current policies of Azerbaijan and Georgia, even if we go 100% towards the West, it will lose its value because we will fall under Turkey’s influence, it will become indirect. And when Russia finds a replacement for us in the region, it can ignore us so much that we will not be able to recover from it,” Oskanian emphasized.
