Azerbaijan maintains a “friendly neutrality”, Georgia does not have direct diplomatic ties with Russia due to the latter’s annexation of Georgian territories, but economic relations between the countries are at a partnership level. It should also be understood that unrecognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia are de facto a continuation of Russia’s official military presence on Georgian territory.
Despite Pashinyan’s “half-turn” towards the West, Armenia remains critically reliant on Russia. After Azerbaijan’s overwhelming victory over Armenia in the Karabakh war, one of the most serious threats to the security of the region and the post-Soviet space as a whole has essentially been eliminated. All that remains is a final peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan for a more lasting peace to be established in the region. After a series of military victories, Azerbaijan initiated the demarcation and delimitation of borders with Armenia. A lot of work has also been done to sign the final peace agreement. However, Armenia chose the path of flirting with the West and directly aggravating relations with Russia.
Armenia has been diverted from the path of reaching a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Recently, Armenia has intensified its attempts at so-called “European integration” to the detriment of common security in the region. In February this year Armenia froze its involvement in the CSTO. The Prime Minister gave an interview to the French channel France 24, saying that peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia should not be expected. Then, a month later, the European Parliament adopted a resolution proposing to consider granting Armenia EU candidate status. 504 MPs voted in favor of the initiative, 4 against and 32 abstained. Another month later, the Armenian Prime Minister travels to Brussels to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.
The Armenian Foreign Ministry said that the meeting in Brussels would focus on economic, energy and humanitarian issues. The Secretary of State also called President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and assured him that the meeting would address economic aspects of cooperation with Armenia. It is noteworthy that prior to the meeting with the Armenian Prime Minister, Blinken met with the French Foreign Minister, who took the liberty to claim that Azerbaijan is a threat to Armenia’s security. It should also be noted that Blinken’s visit to Ukraine on Thursday was not of an economic, but of a purely military and political nature. In general, Blinken has never come out with economic programs when visiting post-Soviet countries.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US Secretary of State has been overseeing the region in terms of deterrence and counteractions against Russia. Official Baku is aware of this trend as well. The post-Soviet space has long been an arena of open confrontation between the collective West and the Russian Federation. Therefore, the convergence of the EU and the US rightly causes serious concern on the part of Azerbaijan. The fact that the visits to Ukraine and France ahead of the meeting with Pashinyan were not economic in nature clearly does not speak in favor of the US Secretary of State. To discuss economic cooperation at the highest level without involving the main countries of the region makes no sense, to put it mildly. And simply since Armenia today cannot be of economic interest to the Western hemisphere.
It is also doubtful that two high-ranking officials, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, intend to discuss economic cooperation with a country where Russia is the leading exporter and importer. One should also bear in mind that the President of the European Commission headed the Ministry of Defense of Germany for a long time. Naturally, President Aliyev understands the vector of Western policy to contain Russia and destabilize the situation in the region on the part of France.
President Aliyev has voiced his concern about the meeting, which will be held without the participation of official Baku, although Blinken assured the Azerbaijani head of state that there is no cause for concern. However, as mentioned above, there are reasons for it. Solid reasons. Recently, the speaker of the Armenian parliament said that “Armenia is a carrier of the European democratic system. For us, getting the status of a candidate for EU membership is the most correct and desirable option, which we should follow. And the process by which it should be done is important here. A lot of things have to be brought in line with European standards.”
The Armenian leadership is already making loud statements at the highest level about the country’s reorientation. The official spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, recently responded to such statements by official Yerevan.
“Obviously, this reflects the desire of the current Armenian authorities to sacrifice the entire range of ties with Russia and other closest allies and partners for the sake of ephemeral bonuses that Yerevan has been enticed with by the EU and the United States,” she said at a recent press briefing.
The question still stands as to why Russia does not get down to concrete preventive actions to counter Armenia’s policy of “eurodestabilization”, but merely keeps making statements addressed to Armenia’s leadership. It is obvious that Armenia is fed economically by Russia, and yet it confesses at the highest official level its love for the West and loyalty to Western ideals. Russia, of course, has ways of exerting influence to subdue Armenia. It is not only military bases and the presence of Russian border checkpoints on Armenian territory. Armenia is very much, as previously stated, economically dependent on Russia. Russia is Armenia’s main trade partner, accounting for about 20% of the country’s foreign trade turnover. The Russian Federation confidently occupies the position of the main foreign investor in Armenia’s economy. Armenia’s pro-Russian parties are widely represented in the country’s parliament, the top command and officer corps, most of whom have studied in Russia’s military schools; there is also the factor of the Armenian diaspora in Russia, dual citizenship of the Armenian population, dozens of Armenians who have left the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan… The list goes on. Russia has more than enough leverage to put pressure on Armenia. If Russia sees a threat to its national interests, it will naturally take more drastic measures to thwart these threats.
So far, the Russian Federation and Armenia have been exchanging mutual admonitions. We can only note the temporary closure of the Upper Lars checkpoint in Georgia, through which 30% of cargo traffic between Russia and Armenia is carried out. The wide range of opportunities for Russian pressure on Armenia does not mean that Russia will not be indifferent to the processes that the West is trying to launch through Armenia. On the contrary. The steps that the West is taking by rearming and selling weapons to Armenia are a well-thought-out map to create a new hotbed of tension involving Russia. The northern neighbor should understand this. Armenia also shares borders with Iran. Iran has repeatedly voiced its concern about the processes taking place in Armenia. The détente between Azerbaijan and Iran also speaks volumes. Iran cannot remain unconcerned about Armenia’s steps towards integration with NATO, as the confrontation between Iran and the United States stretches across the entire Middle East perimeter.
Armenia was specifically instructed to unsettle the region. The country’s leadership will not abandon the political course of “eurodestabilization”. Armenia will expand its military cooperation with both NATO and the United States at the prompting of France. The overall goal is clear: to mess up the political relations between the countries of the region and upset the balance of power. Armenia’s leadership is simply steering the country into calamity at a breakneck speed. Like a bad friend, France is literally throwing Armenia into the geopolitical furnace. The US and the EU have repeatedly demonstrated how prosperous countries can be turned into a bloody battleground. The Caucasus is a rather turbulent region, and it was once an explosive one.
The bad peace that was achieved, as we can now see, solely thanks to Azerbaijan’s thoughtful and balanced policy is once again jeopardized for the sake of strategic competition between major powers.
Ziya Rahimov, political scientist
