Alongside Russia’s military and economic presence in Armenia, representation of pro-Russian forces in the Armenian Parliament remains crucial.
Let’s consider what Pashinyan can do in this regard.
The resignation of Edmon Marukyan from the position of Ambassador at Large for the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs could have several reasons and is a harbinger of anticipated changes in Armenia’s political landscape.
In Azerbaijan, Marukyan was remembered as an advocate of a radical line, responded to by his colleague in the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Parvin Mirzazade…
However, Marukyan is not a professional diplomat but a politician with his own history of relations with Pashinyan. Though he lost his electorate, he still remains an outspoken pro-Western figure, which doubles the interest in his resignation.
Today, an interesting situation has emerged in Armenia’s domestic political landscape:
In Parliament, the pro-Western majority is represented by Pashinyan’s faction, while the parliamentary opposition consists of supporters of Kocharyan, Sarkisian, and Dashnaks, primarily pro-Russian groups.
Extra-parliamentary forces are predominantly pro-Western. This includes Aram Sarkisyan (brother of Sparapet, Republic Party), recently emerged Raffi Hovhannisyan (Heritage), and Arman Babajanyan (information resource 1in).
Radical Westerners are concentrated in Bevra Sevilyan, Polis, and the European Party of the sensationalist Hzmalyan. Pashinyan uses them as attack dogs with a reflex against anything Russian…
Furthermore, the recent elections in the Council of Elders of Yerevan demonstrated that Pashinyan managed to retain his person in the capital through a coalition with Aram Sarkisyan. The main opponent was former Mayor Ayk Haratyan. Also, the group of the eccentric Bulldog received votes to pass the barrier and was able to establish its representation in the Council of Elders. The main outcome of the elections in Yerevan is that the third force can compete with Pashinyan’s party, and this force fell out of his “backpack,” not associated with the so-called “former.”
One version of Marukyan’s resignation revolves around Pashinyan’s plan to consolidate the pro-Western extra-parliamentary opposition, with whom he can make agreements, and replace or dilute the current pro-Russian parliamentary opposition with these forces. Aram Sarkisyan and Edmon Marukyan are very convenient candidates as coalition partners. To please Pashinyan, Aram even tailored himself a new double-breasted suit with patch pockets (?!) to lay flowers together with Pashinyan on the day of his brother’s memory.
To implement this plan, extraordinary parliamentary elections need to be announced, which are widely discussed in Armenia. Pro-Russian forces are also preparing for this, nominating Levon “Toyota,” the son of Kocharyan, as a deputy.
The plan is straightforward, with an anti-Russian context, which will compel the West to once again consolidate its resources to support Pashinyan.
However, this plan also entails risks…
Extraordinary elections mean tension within the domestic political field and a legal opportunity for external forces to intervene in the process.
Alongside this, extraordinary elections also mean a halt to the negotiation process with Azerbaijan for at least six months. By the way, this is also an opportunity to remove mentions of Karabakh from the Party’s Program, and in the future, from the government!
So, the main question: a referendum on the Constitution or extraordinary elections?! Or neither?!
The referendum is about Azerbaijan. Extraordinary parliamentary elections are about turning away from Russia.
What is the priority for Pashinyan?!
The fact that Russian border guards were asked to leave the airport demonstrates that Pashinyan has begun to limit Russia’s existing functionality in the domestic political context, leaving their presence at the hypothetical Armenian-Azerbaijani border.
Pashinyan has mixed and confused all processes… and this negatively affects the perception of Pashinyan in the negotiation process with Azerbaijan.
Farhad Mammadov is director of Center for Studies of the South Caucasus (CSSC)
