Still unable to come to terms with the restoration of Azerbaijan’s full sovereignty over Karabakh, official Paris has chosen the path of further aggravation of relations with Baku, showing more zeal than even the Republic of Armenia itself.
In response to the resolution of the upper house of the French parliament, Azerbaijan’s Milli Majlis called for all French companies, including oil and gas giant Total, to leave the country.
If the Cabinet of Ministers of Azerbaijan takes heed of the appeal of the Milli Majlis Committee for International Relations, it will seriously affect France’s economic interests in the South Caucasus.
It is worth recalling that Azerbaijan accounts for 60 percent of France’s economic ties with the countries of our region. These ties were formed before Azerbaijan’s victory in the 44-day Karabakh war, the outcome of which France flatly refuses to accept.
According to the statistics reported in May 2020 by then Azerbaijani ambassador to France Rahman Mustafayev, the French Republic invested 2.2 billion dollars in Azerbaijan’s economy between 1995 and 2019. Around two billion of them were invested in the oil and gas sector.
Moreover, until 2020, French companies were involved in 42 state-funded projects worth a total of $2.1 billion in Azerbaijan. These companies included such giants of French business as Total, Alstom, Suez, Thales, Danone, Airbus, Bouygues, Iveco, Sanofi and Rothschild and other companies active in Azerbaijan for many years.
According to the same year’s statistics, 61 French companies were registered in Azerbaijan. Their main areas of activity are energy, industry, transportation, space, trade, services and agriculture. In 2019, France’s share in Azerbaijan’s foreign trade turnover amounted to 2.36 percent (11th place), including 1.83 percent in imports (12th place) and 2.73 percent in exports (11th place).
Undoubtedly, the most important French asset in Azerbaijan is TotalEnergies’ share in the Absheron gas condensate field in the Caspian Sea. TotalEnergies and SOCAR each hold a 50 percent stake in the project. In July 2023, when relations between Paris and Baku dramatically deteriorated, TotalEnergies announced the start of natural gas production in the first phase of development of the Absheron field. It should be noted that the French oil and gas giant also owns a 5 percent stake in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline project.
The daily production of the Absheron field, discovered by Azerbaijani geologists in the 1960s, is 4 million cubic meters of gas and 12 thousand barrels of condensate. Experts estimate that the total volume of gas in the field is 350 billion cubic meters. Absheron is the second largest natural gas field in the Caspian Sea after the Shahdeniz field.
Gas produced at Absheron (1.5 billion cubic meters per year) was originally intended for Azerbaijan’s domestic demand. However, it is possible that from the beginning of this year some of the gas produced at this field will go to Europe, as Turkmenistan has suspended the gas swap agreement with Azerbaijan via Iran.
It should be noted that the anti-Azerbaijani resolution adopted by the French Senate is of advisory nature. That is, it merely reflects the position of the parliament of the Fifth Republic and has no binding executive force. The reader will surely remember that similar documents have been adopted by both chambers of the French parliament more than once. In particular, during the 44-day war, the French Parliament adopted a resolution calling on the government to recognize the independence of the “NKR”.
At the same time, it is important to understand that it is not sentimental attachment to the Armenians that guides the Élysée Palace, but sober judgment. Therefore, one can assume with a high degree of probability that the French government may listen, but certainly will not follow the call of its senators. Despite the repeated attempts of the French President’s administration to initiate resolutions against Azerbaijan, including in the UN Security Council, Emmanuel Macron is not ready to sever relations with Baku completely. The price for such a reckless step would deal a tangible blow to Paris’ economic interests in the South Caucasus.
The Macron administration seems to understand that should sanctions be imposed against Azerbaijan, official Baku will not hesitate to remove every single French company from Azerbaijan and nationalize their assets.
Elyas Shafiyev
Translated from Haqqin.az
