Why is it okay for Azerbaijan, but not for Russia?
Any attempts to draw a parallel between Baku’s actions in Karabakh and the war in Ukraine are not based on reality.
Many in the South Caucasus and outside it are doing just that now, rhetorically asking: “Why is it not okay for Russia, but okay for Azerbaijan?”, while overlooking important details.
Imagine that we are not talking about the fact that Karabakh has been recognized by the entire civilized world as part of Azerbaijan and, therefore, Baku had every right to restore constitutional rule there. And we will certainly not argue about which people this long-suffering land belongs to and who lived on it in prehistoric times.
The fundamental difference, which the proponents of this logic fail to see, is that the goal the Azerbaijanis had nurtured for over thirty years was the return of a small region with a population of just over a hundred thousand people. That is, a local objective with a clearly defined scope.
Yes, Baku and Ankara are very interested in opening the Zangezur corridor, but they will not invade Armenia for the sake of it, which, by the way, was recently confirmed by the Turkish President. And in general, unlike Russia, Azerbaijan is not going to occupy the Armenian state, hoist its flag over Yerevan or declare that actually there is no such thing as the Armenian nation, that Armenians are a variety of Azerbaijanis and that those who mistakenly consider themselves Armenians are just victims of Dashnak propaganda and need to have some sense knocked into them immediately.
One must understand that Azerbaijan has accomplished its goal, finished its work, and has no intention to go further. That is, it has nothing in common with Russia’s global plans to destroy Ukrainian statehood, erase Ukrainian identity and turn Ukrainians into Russians.
The only thing the war in Karabakh has in common with the war in Ukraine is that blood was and continues to be spilled in both. Then again, if we follow this logic, there is no fundamental difference between wars of conquest and wars of liberation, since people are shot, killed and maimed in both kinds.
A wake-up call for Armenians
Any defeat on the battlefield is a good lesson for any nation. It is commonly believed that defeats cut one down to size and have a grounding effect. Over the thirty years of occupation of another country’s lands, Armenians got used to living in complacency, convinced that they were a nation of great victorious warriors while the Azerbaijanis were just merchants only capable of trading in tomatoes and carnations.
I remember the fall of 2020 very well. The Azerbaijani army was already taking Shusha by storm, while my Armenian acquaintances were still threatening on social media that they would take Baku.
Well, now they are going to have to overcome the worst national shock and begin to get used to the idea that Armenia is actually a small, extremely vulnerable country buried in the mountains, unprotected and not particularly needed by anyone.
Judging by the tone of many bloggers, journalists and experts, the process of becoming aware of the new reality has already begun, and more and more Armenians are starting to see that in the pursuit of Karabakh they have lost 30 years, entrusting power to outright crooks, and, if they do not act wisely, they will allow the same crooks to regain power.
Nowhere else in the world, except perhaps Ukraine, is Russia as hated as it is now in Armenia. I dare say, however, that this is a positive process.
The Armenian nation is close to accepting what has happened and realizing that Karabakh has been irretrievably lost. It no longer makes sense for them to be under Russia, since the pro-Russian policy that so burdened Armenians had a single purpose of preserving the territories seized from Azerbaijan.
Moscow can no longer guarantee Armenia’s security, so it is now just a yoke around its neck. Without the occupied territories, Armenia can be revived, it can embark on the path of democratic development, find itself again, mend relations with its neighbors and join international regional projects.
I see more and more people in the Armenian media who truly realize this. And the more of them there are, the sooner Armenia will be able to transform itself into a civilized state. A victory not over Baku, but over its own demons of national vanity and pride.
Monte’s doppelganger
Pashinyan, who deserves a good kick in the backside, has been able to become a striking national leader, whose ousting would plunge Armenia into darkness for good.
Personally, I dislike Nikol Pashinyan for two reasons. One of them is minor, the other is extremely serious.
I remember when he first emerged on the streets of Yerevan as a revolutionary leader, many Armenians laughed at him, saying a name that meant nothing to me: “Monte”. And so I wondered what they were talking about. It took me five minutes with the omniscient Google to figure it out. Look at this photo. This is the national hero of Armenia, Lebanese-born Monte Melkonian.
Doesn’t he look familiar? Why, this is the spitting image of Pashinyan in 2018: the beard, the military uniform, the bandaged hand.
Of course, I cannot be sure. Perhaps he injured his hand chopping wood with an axe, things happen, right? The uniform is just a coincidence, and the beard just grew on its own, even though Nikol Pashinyan was always clean-shaven before the revolution. Anyway, all right, people can emulate whomever they like… The second reason, however, looks much more serious.
As we know, supporters of Armenia’s incumbent prime minister accuse the “exes” of not accepting several extremely favorable proposals from Baku, missing promising opportunities, and ultimately leading the country to the defeat in the 44-day war.
All of this is true, but there is a “but”: Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly rejected similar proposals, flirting with nationalists and radicals. Thus, if Kocharyan and Sargsyan are to blame for Armenia losing everything it had and could have more or less kept, then Pashinyan is equally guilty. This means that the blood of soldiers, both Armenian and Azerbaijani, is on his hands, too.
The paradox is that today Pashinyan, who should be locked up, knows exactly what needs to be done for Armenia not to lose its tomorrow. Yes, Nikol Pashinyan has made mistakes in the past. But he has a chance to right his wrongs and offer the people of Armenia a decent future. This is something other Armenian leaders, willing to bring the country back under Moscow’s yoke, negotiate with Russia again and go for a second round of “strategic partnership”, but in the role of a loser, do not have.
In short, this is a dead end. And, as is always the case in such situations, Armenia faces a choice between the really bad and the horrible.
A sad end to 30 years of nationwide euphoria …
Tenghiz Ablotia
Translated from haqqin.az
